Best Home Run Predictions Today: MLB Odds, Picks & Prop Bets for Wednesday, April 23
We went with the wrong Oakland Athletics slugger again last night in our best home run predictions today, rolling with Tyler Soderstrom to add to his league-leading tally when Brent Rooker went deep instead.
Let's avoid that maddening game of homer whack-a-mole today. We're backing a handful of hitters whose temperatures are rising, or their underlying numbers indicate that's sure to happen soon. That includes Bobby Witt Jr. and Adolis Garcia, who get especially appealing matchups against homer-happy hurlers.
💰 Best MLB home run predictions & odds today: April 23
Here are my best MLB home run predictions and odds today with my pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale. You can also check out our MLB player prop odds tool for the latest MLB odds at the best legal sportsbooks in your region.
🧨 Gunnar Henderson player prop pick: To hit a home run (+400 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐
🧨 Yordan Alvarez player prop pick: To hit a home run (+290 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
🧨 Bobby Witt Jr. player prop pick: To hit a home run (+475 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐
🧨 Adolis Garcia player prop pick: To hit a home run (+360 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
💣 Home run predictions today: MLB expert picks & prop bets
Here's a breakdown of my best home run prop predictions and expert picks today. Check out the rest of our MLB picks along with our guide on how to bet on MLB.
⚾ Gunnar Henderson (Orioles) to hit a home run ⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: +400 via BetMGM (bet $10 to win $40)
Terms and conditions apply.
It's easy to look at Gunnar Henderson's early-season production and at first get discouraged, and then want to run as far away from any bet as possible. He enters today sporting a .660 OPS, which is several nautical miles below his .893 from last year.
But he also hit 37 homers a season ago while finishing ninth leaguewide. And when we dig a layer or two below the surface now, we see a left-handed hitter with buckets of talent who surely won't stay down much longer.
Henderson is tattooing balls routinely with little to show for it, with his average exit velocity (97.1 mph) and hard-hit rate (62.5%) both sitting in the top 1% leaguewide. A strikeout rate that's jumped 10% is mostly sinking him, but that will no doubt normalize soon.
Now he'll face a righty in Trevor Williams, whose fastball velocity ranks in the bottom 1%, and yet he still throws the pitch 28.8% of the time. He utilizes his sweeper often, too, and Henderson slugged .708 against breaking pitches last year, all according to Baseball Savant.
📊 Orioles vs. Nationals home run odds
⚾ Yordan Alvarez (Astros) to hit a home run ⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: +290 via FanDuel (bet $10 to win $29)
There are plenty of similarities between Henderson and Alvarez so far this season, and in their matchups tonight.
Both are left-handed mashers frequently among the league leaders in home runs. That's especially true for Alvarez, who's averaged 34 home runs per season over the last four years, despite playing as few as 114 games during that stretch.
Both are also off to sluggish starts by their lofty standards, with Alvarez sitting on a .649 OPS after finishing fifth leaguewide at .959 last year. But like Henderson and even more so, there are glaring signs that the results are coming for Alvarez, and perhaps fast. His hard-hit rate is in the 92nd percentile, and the veteran's expected slugging percentage of .498 is far higher than the designated hitter's actual rate of .333.
Finally, Alvarez also gets an alluring matchup tonight against Bowden Francis of the Toronto Blue Jays. Francis is due for significant regression, with his hard-hit rate allowed and expected slugging both sitting in the bottom 7% MLB-wide.
📊 Astros vs. Blue Jays home run odds
⚾ Bobby Witt Jr. (Royals) to hit a home run ⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: +475 via BetMGM (bet $10 to win $47.50)
When you're homer hunting, targeting the Rockies is like playing Duck Hunt while sitting two inches away from the screen (did I just reveal my age?). Colorado's pitching staff has produced the second-worst ERA at 4.93, and the Rockies are tied for the third-most homers allowed at 31.
German Marquez hasn't been as guilty on the latter front, though he's been lit up for 12 earned runs over just his last 5 2/3 innings, which includes exiting after a mere two outs in his last start. He was due for regression because of his average exit velocity and hard-hit rate that are in the 18th percentile or below.
Enter Witt then, who's predictably one of the few bright spots in an otherwise putrid Kansas City offense so far that sits tied for last in runs. Witt is slashing .308/.381/473, and he's in the middle of a 14-game hitting streak. He's hit a modest two homers, but the power will come for an all-world dynamo who's clubbed 30-plus dingers in two straight seasons. And the matchup against the Rockies and Marquez is the ideal springboard.
📊 Royals vs. Rockies home run odds
⚾ Adolis Garcia (Rangers) to hit a home run ⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: +360 via FanDuel (bet $10 to win $36)
There's one more vulnerable pitcher to target tonight, and it's the always generous JP Sears.
The lefty from the Oakland Athletics has allowed a homer in three of his four starts this season. That continues a trend over the past few campaigns, as Sears surrendered 28 round-trippers last year (tied for 10th worst) and 34 in 2023 (tied for fourth worst). He allows the ball to be put in play often with his mediocre career 7.4 K/9, and the contact is frequently loud.
Garcia can happily provide more of that booming pop against Sears tonight. He's been heating up lately with four extra-base hits across his last six games, two of which left the yard.
He's smacked four homers in total this season, a number surely set to rise with his average exit velocity, barrel rate, and hard-hit rate that all rest in the 95th percentile or higher.
📊 Rangers vs. Athletics home run odds
💰Best MLB home run parlay picks
Here is our best MLB home run parlay for Wednesday's MLB action; use our parlay calculator to get the best odds for any parlay.
⚾ Best MLB betting sites
Looking to bet on baseball? Here are the best sports betting sites and best sportsbook promos as determined by our Sportsbook Review experts.
- Caesars Promo Code: SBRBONUSDYW | Read our Caesars Review
- BetMGM Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our BetMGM Review
- bet365 Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our bet365 Review
- FanDuel Promo Code | Read our FanDuel Review
- DraftKings Promo Code | Read our DraftKings Review
(21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER)
* Bonuses not applicable in Ontario.
Not intended for use in MA.
Each betting site featured on SBR has been meticulously researched and selected by our team of experts. If you sign up through our links, we may get a commission.
Related Articles
