Best Home Run Prop Bets, MLB Player Prop Odds Tonight: April 11
With every single team in MLB hitting the diamond tonight, and torpedo bats being the talk of the town, there are so many different directions to go in with your best home run prop bets today.
Thanks to a couple World Series odds contenders led by home run hammering hitters taking on lesser pitchers, today's props focus on a few of baseball's most known commodities.
💰 Best MLB home run prop bets & odds tonight: April 11
Here are my best MLB home run prop bets and odds tonight with my pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale. You can also check out our MLB player prop odds tool for the latest MLB odds at the best legal sportsbooks in your region.
🧨 Bobby Witt Jr. player prop pick: To hit a home run (+525 via bet365) ⭐⭐
🧨 Marcell Ozuna player prop pick: To hit a home run (+400 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
🧨 Jackson Chourio player prop pick: To hit a home (+625 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐
🧨 Pete Alonso player prop pick: To hit a home run (+325 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
💣 Best MLB home run prop predictions & expert picks today
Here's a breakdown of my best MLB home run prop predictions and expert picks today. Check out the rest of our MLB picks along with our guide on how to bet on MLB.
⚾ Bobby Witt Jr. (Royals) to hit a home run ⭐⭐
Best odds: +525 via bet365 (bet $10 to win $52.50)
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Although Witt Jr. is trailing Aaron Judge in the AL's MLB MVP odds race again this year, the Kansas City Royals' superstar should help cut into the New York Yankees' slugger's lead tonight. While Witt has just one dinger this season thus far, he's got a favorable matchup against Cleveland Guardians pitcher Tanner Bibee.
Bibee has already allowed four homers this season, and opponents have a .641 SLG against the 26-year-old righty. He's also predominantly leaned on his four-seamer (41% of the time), a pitch Witt destroyed last season with a .685 xSLG and 57.7% hard hit rate.
Even with a somewhat quiet start to this season, the Gold Glove-winning shortstop has a .308 batting average against four-seamers to go with a .469 xSLG and 77.8% hard hit rate. He's poised to be in a position to go yard tonight.
📊 Royals vs. Guardians home run odds
⚾ Marcell Ozuna (Braves) to hit a home run ⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: +400 via FanDuel (bet $10 to win $40)
Few players have mashed to the level of Ozuna the last few years. The 34-year-old has amassed 79 dingers in the previous two seasons, and he's shown zero signs of slowing down this year with two homers already and a ridiculous .526 SLG.
Tampa Bay Rays righty Taj Bradley could be in some serious trouble against Ozuna. Bradley loves his four-seamer (41.9%) but has already allowed two homers with it this season after giving up 12 last year. Opponents have a .647 SLG against it and Ozuna should capitalize on his frequent use of it.
The Braves DH was dominant last year against four-seamers with a .353 average to go with a .599 SLG while hitting 21 of his 39 home runs off fastballs. Even if Bradley goes to his second-most used pitch (cutter, 27.5%), Ozuna killed those too last season with a .846 xSLG.
📊 Braves vs. Rays home run odds
⚾ Jackson Chourio (Brewers) to hit a home run ⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: +625 via BetMGM (bet $10 to win $62.50)
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It could be a breakout season for 21-year-old Jackson Chourio, who hit 21 dingers in his first season in the majors last year. The Venezuelan has already gone yard four times in 13 games and sits second in MLB in RBIs (16) behind just Judge.
He's only just ramping up too, with three of his four dingers coming in his last four games, which should have Eduardo Rodriguez shaking on the mound. And while Rodriguez is a lefty, Chourio has had more success against southpaws this season, he's slashing a jaw-dropping .375/.375/.875 against them with 21 total bases and two homers.
Rodriguez's pitch arsenal doesn't help his cause either, with him going to his four-seamer (37.1%) and changeup (25.7%) most often. Chourio is slugging .565 against four-seamers and 1.125 against changeups.
📊 Brewers vs. Diamondbacks home run odds
⚾ Pete Alonso (Mets) to hit a home run ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: +325 via bet365 (bet $10 to win $32.50)
The New York slugger wearing pinstripes for the Evil Empire might have two MVP awards, but what he doesn't have is two Home Run Derby titles. That's one department Pete Alonso has him beat in, and the New York Mets slugger should be feeling pretty good after his alma mater, Florida, won March Madness last weekend.
To celebrate, Alonso can rip the seams off a few baseballs pitched his way by JP Sears, who has allowed 64 home runs since becoming a full-time starter for the Athletics two years ago. He doesn't stand a chance against Alonso with his four-seamer (39.3%) being his go-to pitch.
The 30-year-old Alonso is eating four-seamers alive, with a .625 average, 1.959 xSLG, and 100% hard hit rate against them this year. Those look like numbers you'd put up on the easiest mode of Road to the Show. Say a prayer for Sears, Alonso is about to send him off to never never land.
📊 Mets vs. Athletics home run odds
💰Best MLB home run parlay picks
Here is our best MLB home run parlay for Friday's baseball action; use our parlay calculator to get the best odds for any parlay:
💣 Bobby Witt Jr. to hit a home run (+520)
💣 Marcell Ozuna to hit a home run (+400)
💣 Jackson Chourio to hit a home run (+560)
💣 Pete Alonso to hit a home run (+280)
🚀 Best parlay odds: +77648 via FanDuel ($10 to win $7,764.80)
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