Today's Best Home Run Prop Bets, MLB Player Prop Odds: April 15
Austin Riley graciously homered for us twice yesterday, but we only needed one to cash the final wager in our best home run prop bets today. That led to a +300 win, and later on Mookie Betts' two-run shot during the Los Angeles Dodgers' victory over the Colorado Rockies tallied another win for us, this time at +575.
Now let's keep it rolling while turning to a red-hot future Hall of Famer in Mike Trout, and a handful of other sluggers who have been effective, but we see reasons to expect more after cracking open the homer hood.
👉 See Andrew Brennan's best MLB strikeout props for more MLB betting action today.
💰 Best MLB home run prop bets & odds tonight: Tuesday, April 15
Here are my best MLB home run prop bets and odds tonight with my pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale. You can also check out our MLB player prop odds tool for the latest MLB odds at the best legal sportsbooks in your region.
🧨 Brandon Lowe player prop pick: To hit a home run (+475 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐
🧨 Mike Trout player prop pick: To hit a home run (+320 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
🧨 Brent Rooker player prop pick: To hit a home run (+340 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
🧨 Brandon Nimmo player prop pick: To hit a home run (+520 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
💣 Best MLB home run prop predictions & expert picks today
Here's a breakdown of my best MLB home run prop predictions and expert picks today. Check out the rest of our MLB picks along with our guide on how to bet on MLB.
⚾ Brandon Lowe (Rays) to hit a home run ⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: +475 via bet365 (bet $10 to win $47.50)
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The Boston Red Sox have been obliterated twice in the past several days, with the most recent napalming of their pitching staff last night during a 16-1 Tampa Bay Rays win. That comes not long after Boston's 11-1 loss to the Chicago White Sox.
The Red Sox have lost six of their last eight games, giving up six-plus runs in four of those defeats. There's plenty of offense and homer potential when the 23rd-ranked team in ERA and 26th in opposing batting average is involved, especially when the Red Sox are playing the Rays at their temporary minor-league ballpark.
This pick is mainly about capitalizing on Boston's woes before there's positive regression. Walker Buehler being on the mound to start for the Red Sox makes it even better, as he's allowed three homers over as many starts, and his barrel rate sits in just the 31st percentile, according to Baseball Savant.
Lowe is more than capable of doing his part here though. He's hit three dingers so far through 14 games, and his astronomical expected slugging of .639 - which sits in the top 4% leaguewide - is far higher than the veteran's actual slugging of .421, showing Lowe has been making quality contact, and the results will come soon.
📊 Rays vs. Red Sox home run odds
⚾ Mike Trout (Angels) to hit a home run ⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: +320 via FanDuel (bet $10 to win $32)
Trout is predictably receiving short odds to hit a home run pretty much any night right now at our best MLB betting sites, and especially tonight against perennial launchpad Patrick Corbin of the Texas Rangers. That's inevitable when the slugger in question is tied for the league lead with six homers already.
But it's key to pounce quickly on an outlier price from FanDuel here. The +320 from that book for a white-hot legend is far more appealing than the +260 at Caesars.
It's difficult to gauge exactly what the 33-year-old version of Trout will be after several injury-plagued seasons. But right now he's precisely what we crave around here, which is a hitter capable of projecting laser beams at will and is in the dogged pursuit of doing only that all the time.
Trout's batting average is a lowly .196, but his .536 slugging and .834 OPS reflect a hitter who's putting quality far ahead of quantity, all while clearing the fences often. And now he gets to face Corbin, the 35-year-old fill-in starter who's regularly swatted around. He's given up 25-plus homers in four straight seasons, including campaigns with 33 and 37.
📊 Angels vs. Rangers home run odds
⚾ Brent Rooker (Athletics) to hit a home run⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: +340 via FanDuel (bet $10 to win $34)
There are some similarities here to the reasoning for our first two picks today.
Like Lowe, there are indications quality power numbers from Rooker (including four home runs through 16 games) should be better and are likely set to improve. His expected slugging of .552 sits far higher than Rooker's actual slugging of .406.
He's also thumping the ball regularly while posting a 50% hard-hit rate. That's a few ticks better than Rooker's 49.6 last year, which sat in the top 8% of MLB.
And like Trout, we're getting an outlier price on a hitter who frequently goes yard, so his odds are often short accordingly. FanDuel is offering Rooker for +340 today, while Caesars is down at +280.
Snap him up then before kicking back to watch the potential fireworks against White Sox starter Sean Burke, who comes into the game with a 6.08 ERA and a 2.0 HR/9.
📊 Athletics vs. White Sox home run odds
⚾ Brandon Nimmo (Mets) to hit a home run ⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: +520 via FanDuel (bet $10 to win $52)
There's a whole lot of icy blue on Bailey Ober's Baseball Savant page. The Twins starter finished tied for 12th leaguewide last year while allowing 27 homers. Little has changed now, as he's frequently getting torched while surrendering a 93-mph average exit velocity and a hard-hit rate of 54.8%, both of which sit in the bottom 9% of MLB.
It's a matchup that lines up well for anyone, but especially a lefty, as Ober is allowing a .961 OPS against hitters on that side of the plate. The Mets' Nimmo checks that box, and there are also underlying indications he's ready to lift off.
Nimmo has hit four homers, including two over his last four games. Yet although he sports a decent though less than spectacular OPS of .728, his production could be much higher given Nimmo's 59.2% hard-hit rate, which sits in the top 5% leaguewide.
📊 Mets vs. Twins home run odds
💰Best MLB home run parlay picks
Here is our best MLB home run parlay for Tuesday's baseball action; use our parlay calculator to get the best odds for any parlay:
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