Best Home Run Prop Bets, MLB Player Prop Odds Today: April 17
For a while last night, I was tempted to change the name of these picks to the best warning track prop bets today. Alas, Freddie Freeman came through in the later West Coast window, allowing us to keep the best home run prop bets today moniker.
Freeman also halted our days without a win in an always volatile market at one, cashing at +425. The difficulty level rises further now amid a shorter slate during a getaway Thursday. But we'll look toward two sizzling young lefties to keep the good times going, along with a veteran switch-hitter in an appealing matchup.
💰 Best MLB home run prop bets & odds today: April 17
Here are my best MLB home run prop bets and odds today with my pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale. You can also check out our MLB player prop odds tool for the latest MLB odds at the best legal sportsbooks in your region.
🧨 Jose Ramirez player prop pick: To hit a home run (+550 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐
🧨 Ben Rice player prop pick: To hit a home run (+475 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐
🧨 Kerry Carpenter player prop pick: To hit a home run (+520 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐
🧨 Taylor Ward player prop pick: To hit a home run (+450 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐
💣 Best MLB home run prop predictions & expert picks today
Here's a breakdown of my best MLB home run prop predictions and expert picks today. Check out the rest of our MLB picks along with our guide on how to bet on MLB.
⚾ Jose Ramirez (Guardians) to hit a home run ⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: +550 via Bet365 (bet $10 to win $55)
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Ramirez has taken a slight step back since an incendiary start, but he's still doing his typical nightly swatting. That includes an .869 OPS overall and two straight multi-hit outings.
We're getting a price that's more appealing than usual for Ramirez to go long. He's fresh off 39 dingers last season, and the switch-hitter has averaged 32 over his past four campaigns. Yet a moderate cold stretch in that regard has led to two of our best MLB betting sites offering him for +550 to hit a home run today (BetMGM and bet365). Be sure to stay away from Caesars and its +450, though.
Ramirez hit three of his four home runs this season in one day, and he's gone 10 games without clubbing one. But now he gets to square off against Tomoyuki Sugano, who's making just his fourth MLB start for the Baltimore Orioles.
He's allowing a whole lot of contact while generating little swing and miss with his 3.2 K/9. That's what happens with a mediocre fastball featuring a velocity that sits in just the 23rd percentile. Sugano leans heavily on movement while throwing his fastball 17% of the time, and Ramirez is slugging .579 against breaking pitches this season.
📊 Guardians vs. Orioles home run odds
⚾ Ben Rice (Yankees) to hit a home run ⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: +475 via bet365 (bet $10 to win $47.50)
Rice is set to be given much more runway this season after being called up in mid-June last year. And he's already lifting off, with the first baseman putting out an early-season power surge through five homers and a 1.003 OPS over 16 games and 65 plate appearances. He's approaching his long ball total of seven from last year that Rice reached across 50 games and 178 plate appearances.
The lefty has been mashing in general with a sea of red on his Baseball Savant page. What pops out the most is his other-worldly 62.5% hard-hit rate, which means it feels like he's firing off missiles at all times.
He'll take that against a righty in Taj Bradley who's off to a promising start. But regression could quickly lie ahead for a hurler who has allowed an average exit velocity in the bottom 5% leaguewide during each of the past two seasons.
📊 Yankees vs. Rays home run odds
⚾ Kerry Carpenter (Tigers) to hit a home run⭐⭐
Best odds: +520 via FanDuel (bet $10 to win $52)
There are plenty of similarities between Rice and Carpenter. They're nearly the same age, both are lefties, and each rising slugger is volcano hot with equally scorching underlying numbers.
For Carpenter, the most impressive digits tied to him aren't the five home runs already. It's his .673 expected slugging percentage, which sits much higher than Carpenter's already eye-popping .571 actual slugging. He's been shining, but there's room for even more and significant positive regression.
He'll bring that potential into a matchup with Michael Lorenzen, who's off to a solid start but has allowed a 44.4% hard-hit rate, which ranks in the 33rd percentile.
There are several of these instances daily, but this is yet again a time to run far away from Caesars. The book's +400 price for Carpenter to go deep is far shorter than these +520 odds at FanDuel.
📊 Tigers vs. Royals home run odds
⚾ Taylor Ward (Angels) to hit a home run ⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: +450 via bet365 (bet $10 to win $45)
It's Kumar Rocker day again. The Texas Rangers' young righty is filled with promise, but there will be some bumps and/or gaping potholes on the road to arriving at a higher level.
And of course, the most wayward section of his journey will be the beginning. We've seen that already through his first six major-league starts, three of which have come this season. Rocker has been put in a blender repeatedly while allowing 10 earned runs over just 11 1/3 innings (7.94 ERA). He's shown little ability to avoid contact with his minuscule 4.8 K/9.
There's also been both little deception or velocity to his offerings, resulting in a ballooning hard-hit rate allowed of 56.8%, which sits in the bottom 5% of MLB. It's an ideal time to lean on Taylor Ward, the Angels outfielder who has been focusing far more on power than contact lately with five home runs over his last seven games.
Ward has also been excelling against sinkers with his 1.231 slugging percentage against that pitch early this season. That's easily Rocker's most-used pitch, as he throws it 40.2% of the time.
📊 Angels vs. Rangers home run odds
💰Best MLB home run parlay picks
Here is our best MLB home run parlay for Thursday's baseball action; use our parlay calculator to get the best odds for any parlay.
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