Best Home Run Prop Bets, MLB Player Prop Odds Today: April 18
We've been on an absolute heater this MLB season with our best home run prop bets today, and we'll look to stay hot even with our regular long-ball prognosticator enjoying a long holiday weekend.
We've set our sights on four batters with favorable matchups tonight, including the two early leaders in home runs. Here are our best home run props for Friday's 15-game MLB slate:
💰 Best MLB home run prop bets & odds today: April 18
Here are my best MLB home run prop bets and odds today with my pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale. You can also check out our MLB player prop odds tool for the latest MLB odds at the best legal sportsbooks in your region.
🧨 Oneil Cruz player prop pick: To hit a home run (+450 via bet365) ⭐⭐
🧨 Yandy Diaz player prop pick: To hit a home run (+480 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐
🧨 Cal Raleigh player prop pick: To hit a home run (+280 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
🧨 Tyler Soderstrom player prop pick: To hit a home run (+475 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
💣 Best MLB home run prop predictions & expert picks today
Here's a breakdown of my best MLB home run prop predictions and expert picks today. Check out the rest of our MLB picks along with our guide on how to bet on MLB.
⚾ Oneil Cruz (Pirates) to hit a home run ⭐⭐
Best odds: +450 via bet365 (bet $10 to win $45)
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You could make the case that Cruz shouldn't be catching these odds based on the talent profile alone, even if it's only amounted to four home runs in 17 games. He's hit one in two straight games, though, as he looks to be heating up at the plate ahead of a favorable matchup at home.
While the 6-foot-7 Cruz is still hitting .228 with a subpar 29.6% strikeout rate, he's boasting some of the best underlying power numbers of his young career. We already know he possesses elite bat speed (77.8 MPH) - that ranks third among all hitters - but he's coupled that with an unusually high walk rate (15.5%) while squaring up with the ideal launch angle and sweet spot nearly 50% of the time.
In other words: pitchers are afraid to challenge him over the plate, and when they do, Cruz has routinely made them pay with loud contact.
That's why I love his chances to go deep for a third straight game when he faces Cleveland Guardians starter Luiz Ortiz, who has given up three home runs over his last two starts while ranking among the league's worst in average exit velocity (92.3 MPH) and hard-hit rate (46%).
📊 Guardians vs. Pirates home run odds
⚾ Yandy Diaz (Rays) to hit a home run ⭐⭐
Best odds: +480 via FanDuel (bet $10 to win $48)
This bet is as much about Diaz as it is about New York Yankees starter Carlos Rodon, who has allowed at least one home run in all four starts this season after serving up two taters in Sunday's start against the San Francisco Giants.
Rodon hasn't been quite as bad as his 5.48 ERA would suggest, but he's still walking a career-high 12.9% of batters while getting hit hard nearly 40% of the time. He's lost nearly two ticks on his fastball (93.7 MPH), which is surrendering a .633 xSLG, and he's finding the zone on a career-worst 42.8% of pitches.
Simply put, Rodon doesn't quite look right in his age-32 season, and he's facing a familiar foe in Diaz - who has gone 4-for-11 (.364) in his career against Rodon with a home run.
The Tampa Bay Rays first baseman has always possessed elite power when he can connect bat to ball, which continues to be a problem. I suspect Rodon will give him a few chances to flex his muscle tonight and send one flying out of the spring training ballpark that the Rays are calling home this season.
📊 Yankees vs. Rays home run odds
⚾ Cal Raleigh (Mariners) to hit a home run ⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: +280 via FanDuel (bet $10 to win $28)
The "Big Dumper" has made good on his elite nickname through the first month of the season, ranking second in home runs (eight) despite hitting just .216 overall. He's clubbed six of those eight HRs against righties, and he's hit six homers in his last six games - five from the right side of the plate.
Raleigh switched to a torpedo bat last Friday ahead of this torrid run, and he's only using the bowling-pin style bat when swinging as a lefty. That doesn't bode well for Toronto Blue Jays RHP Bowden Francis, who has given up four home runs to left-handed batters in just three starts this season.
Francis is surrendering a .488 SLG in 41 at-bats against lefties, and he was taken deep twice in his last outing against the Baltimore Orioles. The underlying metrics don't offer much solace: the former seventh-rounder ranks in the bottom 10% in max EV (112.7 MPH) and xSLG (.556), and he's getting barreled 13% of the time.
📊 Mariners vs. Blue Jays home run odds
⚾ Tyler Soderstrom (Athletics) to hit a home run ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: +475 via bet365 (bet $10 to win $47.50)
"Fastball Freddy" Peralta is off to one of his best starts with the Milwaukee Brewers, but he's looked more like long-ball Freddy at times when relying too heavily on the heater, which has been taken deep twice in four starts.
He's finding success with the pitch, allowing just a .185 batting average while throwing it more often (60.7%) than he has since the shortened 2020 season. Yet he's struggled to generate whiffs with the four-seamer (23.3%), and the result is an overall barrel rate (9.1%) that would be his worst since 2019.
The Athletics are quietly tied for sixth in home runs (23) behind an MLB-best nine HRs from Soderstrom, who has gone yard three times in his last three games. The A's rising star ranks among the top 5% of hitters in xSLG (.684) and xwOBA (.446) with a blistering 53.4% hard-hit rate.
Soderstrom has hit four of his nine dingers off fastballs, and he's slugging a ridiculous 1.133 against four-seamers with a miniscule 9.1% whiff rate and 84.6% hard-hit rate. Given that Peralta leans on the pitch 60% of the time, I love these long odds on Soderstrom to take one of them deep tonight.
📊 Athletics vs. Brewers home run odds
💰Best MLB home run parlay picks
Here is our best MLB home run parlay for Friday's baseball action; use our parlay calculator to get the best odds for any parlay.
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