Best Home Run Prop Bets, MLB Player Prop Odds Tonight: April 9
We've gone two whole editions of our best home run prop bets today without a dinger, so it's time to turn to some slump-busters.
Today that includes two red-hot ball-launchers in Alex Bregman and Brandon Lowe, and another homer-happy hitter who plays in the rocket blaster that is Coors Field. It's also tough to pass on perennial masher Bryce Harper in an ideal matchup.
💰 Best MLB home run prop bets & odds tonight: April 9
Here are my best MLB home run prop bets and odds tonight with my pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale. You can also check out our MLB player prop odds tool for the latest MLB odds at the best legal sportsbooks in your region.
🧨 Alex Bregman player prop pick: To hit a home (+550 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐
🧨 Bryce Harper player prop pick: To hit a home (+560 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
🧨 Ryan McMahon player prop pick: To hit a home run (+575 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐
🧨 Brandon Lowe player prop pick: To hit a home run (+600 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐
💣 Best MLB home run prop predictions & expert picks today
Here's a breakdown of my best MLB home run prop predictions and expert picks today. Check out the rest of our MLB picks along with our guide on how to bet on MLB.
⚾ Alex Bregman (Red Sox) to hit a home run ⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: +550 via BetMGM (bet $10 to win $55)
Terms and conditions apply.
Bregman has already recorded four multi-hit games over just his first 12 outings with the Boston Red Sox, and the highlight was easily a scorching 4-for-5 outing this past Sunday with two doubles and a home run.
It was his second long ball of the young season. He's consistently blasting baseballs, and his 94.4 mph average exit velocity that sits in the top 8% of MLB, per Baseball Savant, backs up what the eyes are seeing.
He'll go up against the Toronto Blue Jays' Kevin Gausman tonight, whose time as one of baseball's split-finger maestros might be nearing its end.
Gausman has still been effective enough through two starts and 11 1/3 innings with his respectable 3.97 ERA. However, his downward strikeout trend is continuing, and he may be entering full plunge mode. Gausman finished third in AL Cy Young voting in 2023 after posting a K/9 of 11.5. That fell to 8.1 last season, and it sits at a basement-level 3.2 now after producing just his fifth-career game without a strikeout.
There will surely be some positive regression ahead for the lefty. But his once lethal split-finger isn't generating the same swing-and-miss, with a whiff percentage of just 11.1 after sitting at 33.5 last year.
📊 Blue Jays vs. Red Sox home run odds
⚾ Bryce Harper (Phillies) to hit a home run ⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: +560 via FanDuel (bet $10 to win $56)
The Atlanta Braves are off to a scuffling start, but their immense talent still leads to them maintaining a top-five spot in the World Series odds, not far behind Bryce Harper and the Philadelphia Phillies.
Both Harper and the Phillies get a chance to capitalize while the 2-8 Braves are down, and tonight that means pouncing on Grant Holmes. The Los Angeles Dodgers and their also terrifying offense lit up Holmes for four earned runs over just as many innings during his only start so far this season. Combine that with his one inning of relief, and his hard-hit percentage is a rather bloated 69.2%, which sits in the bottom 2% leaguewide.
A struggling pitcher on a struggling team offers an ideal matchup for Harper, the lefty who clubbed 21 of his 30 homers last season off righties.
This is yet another case when price shopping at our best MLB betting sites is critical, as FanDuel is offering +560 odds that are in another galaxy compared to the +380 from Caesars.
📊 Phillies vs. Braves home run odds
⚾ Ryan McMahon (Rockies) to hit a home run⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: +575 via bet365 (bet $10 to win $57.50)
Terms and conditions apply.
The fresh and thin mountain air of Coors Field is forever a homer haven, which is why targeting even the often wayward Colorado Rockies is wise in this market.
The matchup still needs to be the right one, and tonight we get that with Ryan McMahon set to spend much of his evening opposing Milwaukee Brewers starter Tyler Alexander. The latter is coming off a season when his ERA was a career-worst 5.10. He also wasn't putting away nearly as many batters, with a K/9 that dropped from 9.0 the year before to 7.5.
The southpaw throws his fastball often (29.5% of the time last year, making it his second most-used pitch) despite it being one of the weaker heaters leaguewide and sitting in the fourth percentile during 2024 in velocity. McMahon posted a 54.5% hard-hit rate against four-seamers last year, showing he's plenty capable of teeing off on Alexander's weak offerings.
Scouring for the best price is key again here, with the +575 offering from bet365 far more appealing then the +450 at Caesars.
📊 Rockies vs. Brewers home run odds
⚾ Brandon Lowe (Rays) to hit a home run ⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: +600 via bet365 (bet $10 to win $60)
Yusei Kikuchi is homer-friendly even when at his top form. We saw the peak version of him not long ago in 2023 when the Japanese hurler posted a career-best 3.86 ERA. That went up slightly to 4.05 last year, but he also produced a career-high 206 strikeouts.
However, the contact he's given up has been of the loud variety throughout his career, as he's allowed 25-plus homers in three of the past four campaigns. His generous ways with dingers even hit 36 back in 2019 as a rookie.
Kikuchi often minimizes the impact of that damage, with his strikeouts reducing baserunners. But we only care about the existence and consistency of those long balls allowed around here, and today the Rays' Brandon Lowe is well-positioned to be the next to benefit.
Lowe has been sprinting out of the starting blocks this season with his three homers while slashing .293/.326/.512. The lefty has also been effective against southpaws like Kikuchi, as Lowe boasted an .835 OPS against lefties last year and a .772 when facing a righty.
The veteran also produced a .593 expected slugging last year against fastballs, a pitch Kikuchi leans on exceedingly heavily after throwing it 47% of the time in 2024.
📊 Rays vs. Angels home run odds
💰Best MLB home run parlay picks
Here is our best MLB home run parlay for Wednesday's baseball action; use our parlay calculator to get the best odds for any parlay:
💣 Alex Bregman to hit a home run (+550)
💣 Bryce Harper to hit a home run (+450)
💣 Ryan McMahon to hit a home run (+575)
💣 Brandon Lowe to hit a home run (+600)
🚀 Best parlay odds: +168818 via bet365 ($10 to win $16,891.87)
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