Best Strikeout Bets, MLB Player Prop Odds Tonight: April 14
Monday means a fresh week of MLB betting, so get ready to bounce back if things didn't go your way the previous seven days.
Our best strikeout prop bets today feature picks for four talented starters, including two Cy Young odds favorites. However, despite the talent on display today, we're riding with four Unders.
It begins in Pittsburgh when Paul Skenes and the Pirates host the Washington Nationals. We then have a pair of pitchers from the 7 p.m. ET window, as Shane Baz takes on the Boston Red Sox and Tarik Skubal faces the Milwaukee Brewers.
Finally, Dustin May was dominant in his last start but didn't rack up the punchouts. Will that change against the Colorado Rockies tonight?
💰 Best MLB strikeout prop bets & odds tonight: April 14
Here are my best MLB strikeout prop bets and odds tonight with my pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale. You can also check out our MLB player prop odds tool for the latest MLB odds at the best legal sportsbooks in your region.
❌ Paul Skenes player prop pick: Under 6.5 strikeouts (+128 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
❌ Shane Baz player prop pick: Under 6.5 strikeouts (-154 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
❌ Tarik Skubal player prop pick: Under 6.5 strikeouts (+126 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
❌ Dustin May player prop pick: Under 5.5 strikeouts (+105 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
💪 Best MLB strikeout prop predictions & expert picks today
Here's a breakdown of my best MLB strikeout prop predictions and expert picks today. Check out the rest of our MLB picks along with our guide on how to bet on MLB.
⚾ Paul Skenes (Pirates) Under 6.5 strikeouts ⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: +128 via FanDuel (bet $10 to win $12.80)
Skenes has been much better through three starts than his 3.44 ERA suggests, as he has a 1.45 xERA and a 1.31 FIP - the latter ranks second among qualified starters. However, his strikeouts have dipped considerably, likely as the result of the big righty getting far fewer called strikes thus far this season. Overall, his called + swinging strike rate is down to 28.2% from 29.4% last season.
The NL Cy Young favorite is still expected to rack up nearly seven Ks tonight against the Nats, but with most of our other best MLB betting sites offering this total at 7.5 with the Under heavily juiced, we're seeing solid value via FanDuel's rogue 6.5 line.
Many recreational bettors would likely see that line and rush to bet the Over, but based on Skenes' projection of 6.7, we're getting nearly 13% +EV on the Under. Comparatively, through the best odds on Under 7.5 (-160), you'd be getting only 4.5% +EV on the Under.
📊 Paul Skenes prop odds vs. Nationals
⚾ Shane Baz (Rays) Under 6.5 strikeouts ⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: -154 via FanDuel (bet $10 to win $6.49)
When the Pirates traded Tyler Glasnow, Austin Meadows, and a player to be named later to the Tampa Bay Rays for Chris Archer in 2018, jaws collectively dropped. Incredibly, that latter player ended up being the Pirates' 2017 first-round pick, and the addition of Baz made it truly one of the worst trades in MLB history.
However, it's been a long road for Baz with the Rays, as he's struggled to remain healthy since joining the team. He's looked absolutely dialed-in through two starts this season, though.
Baz racked up 10 Ks in his season debut against those very Pirates and followed that up with six in his last start. I expect him to land closer to the latter than the former tonight.
Most of our best sports betting sites are hovering around this number, so you mostly have your choices of where to bet this. It's a lot of juice, but based on Baz's strikeout projection of 4.91, we're getting great value.
📊 Shane Baz prop odds vs. Red Sox
⚾ Tarik Skubal (Tigers) Under 6.5 strikeouts ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: +126 via FanDuel (bet $10 to win $12.60)
Skubal looked like he was due for a bit of regression based on his peripherals last season, but I'm not sure anyone expected the reigning AL Cy Young and pitching Triple Crown winner to get off to this type of start in 2025.
The southpaw settled in last time out against the New York Yankees after two bumpy outings, but he's still managed only 16 strikeouts across 16 2/3 innings so far this year. He's projected for another decent yet unspectacular output tonight against the Brewers.
Based on Skubal's strikeout projection of 6.24, we're getting better than 28% +EV on this Under. For its part, Pinnacle, which features one of the most respected trading teams in the sports betting industry, is at +107 for the Under.
We've seen sharp action to the Over since this prop opened, but I trust the projections enough to believe we're still getting great value on this. That's why it's one of the MLB bets I personally made today.
📊 Tarik Skubal prop odds vs. Brewers
⚾ Dustin May (Dodgers) Under 5.5 strikeouts ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: +105 via DraftKings (bet $10 to win $10.50)
The World Series odds-favorite Dodgers are already dealing with injuries to their rotation (go figure), so they're relying on May to continue to shine like he has through two games. He owns a sparkling 0.82 ERA and 0.91 WHIP. However, his underlying data isn't as favorable, and he's managed only seven punchouts across 11 innings.
This is a relatively big total for someone like May, who appears to be leaning on the pure nastiness of his stuff and taking a bit off - his average fastball velocity is down to 95.6 from 97.6 mph last year - to induce a ton of weak contact and ground balls. And, so far, it's working. But it's not leading to punchouts.
May is projected for only 4.55 Ks tonight against the lowly Rockies, making this the highest EV bet on the board at better than 41.5%. Pinnacle is already offering the Under at -124, and none of our other best sports betting apps have this at plus money, so be sure to head to DraftKings to get the best number.
📊 Dustin May prop odds vs. Rockies
💰Best MLB strikeout parlay picks
Here is our best MLB strikeout parlay for Monday's baseball action; use our parlay calculator to get the best odds for any parlay:
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