We Asked ChatGPT to Predict Nick Castellanos' Next Home Run After Pope's Death
It's been over a week since Nick Castellanos hit a home run. If recent world events are any indication, it's only a matter of time before he sends a drive into deep left field.
After Pope Francis died on Monday, some bettors were looking ahead to the next pope betting odds. Others put their money on Castellanos, who has earned a reputation for going deep in the immediate aftermath of major news or notable deaths.
Sure enough, the Philadelphia Phillies slugger was the most-bet player to hit a home run on Monday - drawing three times as many bets as anyone else at BetMGM. It was the sportsbook's most-bet wager across any sport that day, while FanDuel even froze his home run market shortly after the news broke.
Castellanos is yet to hit a home run this week, but he's catching +700 odds across our best sports betting sites to end that drought today against the Mets (1:10 p.m. ET). Is he due for a dinger? We turned to ChatGPT for its Nick Castellanos home run predictions amid a busy week of international news.
⚾ Nick Castellanos home run odds today vs. Mets
Here are the latest Phillies vs. Mets home run odds today, which will update live. You can also check out our MLB player prop odds tool for the latest MLB odds at the best legal sportsbooks in your region.
🤖 Castellanos home run prediction: Will he hit HR today?
Castellanos has become synonymous with timely home runs, often coinciding with significant world events. With the recent passing of Pope Francis, fans are speculating if Castellanos will continue this uncanny trend.
🆚 Today's matchup: Nick Castellanos vs. LHP David Peterson (1-1, 3.27 ERA)
- Career vs. Peterson: Castellanos has a solid history against Mets' left-hander David Peterson, going 5-for-10 with a double and 4 RBIs in 11 plate appearances, resulting in a .500 batting average and a 1.055 OPS.
- 2025 season stats: Through 23 games, Castellanos is batting .289 with 3 home runs and 14 RBIs, boasting an .818 OPS.
- Recent form: Since hitting his last home run on April 14, he's 6-for-25 (.240) with 3 RBIs and a .590 OPS. He was hitting .310 before the last seven days.
🔮 AI prediction: Will Castellanos hit a HR?
Considering his favorable history against Peterson and his current form, our AI model estimates an 18% probability of Castellanos hitting a home run today.
- Base home run rate: Castellanos' home run rate this season is approximately 0.13 HR per game (3 HRs in 23 games), and he's averaging roughly 0.15 per game in his career
- Adjustment for pitcher matchup: Given his success against Peterson, we apply a positive adjustment, increasing the probability
- Adjustment for venue: Considering the lack of home runs at Citi Field, we apply a slight negative adjustment
👉 Want more expert (human) analysis? Check out the rest of our MLB picks today, including our best home run prop bets.
🗓️ Castellanos home run history
Castellanos has developed a reputation for hitting home runs during or shortly after significant or somber events, leading to a series of viral moments. Here's a timeline of some of the most notable instances:
| 📅 Date | 📰 News event / broadcast moment | 💣 Castellanos HR |
|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2011 | Death of Osama bin Laden | Hits first professional HR in minor leagues |
| Aug 19, 2020 | Thom Brennaman's on-air apology for homophobic slur | Homers mid-apology, leading to viral "deep left field" meme |
| July 5, 2021 | Royals broadcast eulogizes WWII veteran | Homers during the eulogy |
| May 30, 2022 | Memorial Day tribute on Phillies broadcast | Homers during the tribute |
| June 18, 2024 | Death of Willie Mays | Homers within an hour for walk-off win |
| July 13, 2024 | Attempted assassination of Donald Trump | Homers later that day |
| July 21, 2024 | President Joe Biden announces he won't seek re-election | Homers hours after the announcement |
| Apr 14, 2025 | 113th anniversary of Titanic sinking | Homers; broadcaster references it as a "Titanic blast" |
📊 Castellanos' 2025 home run stats
Here's a look at Castellanos' stats for the 2025 MLB season, including his home run numbers and advanced hitting metrics entering today's games.
- Total HRs: 3
- Home: 3 HRs in 13 games
- Away: 0 HRs in 10 games
- Standard stats
- AVG: .289
- SLG: .470
- ISO: .181
- HR rate: 3.3%
- Advanced stats
- xBA: .277
- xSLG: .491
- Barrel rate: 9.1%
- Hard-hit rate: 42.4%
Castellanos has been more productive at home, with all his home runs coming at Citizens Bank Park. His last home run came on April 14 against the San Francisco Giants, which was also the 113th anniversary of the Titanic sinking.
➡️ Phillies' upcoming schedule
Here's a look at the Phillies' upcoming games and Castellanos' career performance against the projected starting pitchers:
| 📅 Matchup | 🧢 Probable SP | 🆚 Career stats | 📈 HR projection |
|---|---|---|---|
| @ Mets (April 23) | David Peterson (LHP) | 5-for-10 (.500), 1.055 OPS | 18% |
| @ Cubs (April 25) | Colin Rea (RHP) | 2-for-9 (.222), HR, .856 OPS | 14% |
| @ Cubs (April 26) | Ben Brown (RHP) | Never faced | 11% |
| @ Cubs (April 27) | Jameson Taillon (RHP) | 4-for-10 (.400), HR, 1.100 OPS | 17% |
| vs. Nationals (April 29) | MacKenzie Gore (LHP) | 7-for-22 (.318), 2 HR, .955 OPS | 20% |
🚀 Will Nick Castellanos hit a home run today?
While the coincidence of Castellanos' home runs with major events is intriguing, today's matchup against David Peterson (1-1, 3.27 ERA) presents a statistically favorable opportunity for him to go deep.
Given his past success against Peterson and these odds at FanDuel representing a 12.50% chance of him hitting a home run - which is lower than our projection of 18% - bettors might consider placing a wager on Castellanos hitting a home run today.
💰 Best odds: +700 via FanDuel ($10 to win $70)
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