Canada Election Odds: Carney's Liberals Pull Away as Favorites for Majority Ahead of April 28 Election
It's now just six days until Canadians head to the polls, and the Liberals are still far ahead as the favorite in the Canadian federal election odds.
That's been the case since the party elected Mark Carney as its leader. The Conservatives were massive favorites before Donald Trump was given a second term in the United States, and when the unpopular Justin Trudeau was leading the Liberals. That popularity continued until the winter, but the combination of a simmering trade war and the positive reception of Carney powered the Liberals' quick uprising.
That's continuing now at the best sportsbooks in Canada with under a week to go until election day, and the Liberals continuing to grow their gap in the odds.
📊 45th Canadian federal election betting odds
This market is set for the "Sworn in Government." Odds via FanDuel Ontario as of April 22.
| Party | Odds | Implied probability | Profit ($10 bet) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Liberal Party (LPC) | -440 | 81.48% | $2.27 |
| Conservatives (CPC) | +270 | 27.03% | $27 |
| Any other party | +7500 | 1.32% | $750 |
🆕 Latest Canadian federal election odds & news
- April 22: The Liberals surged forward yet again after some mild movement back toward the Conservatives, jumping from -310 to -440, while the Conservatives lengthened from +220 to +270
- April 21: A record 7.3 million Canadians voted during advanced polling held over the Easter long weekend
- March 22: The Liberals became -150 betting favorites with the Conservatives going to +110 with reports of an election being called for April 28
- March 10: Conservatives slip to -225, Liberals shorten to +162
- March 9: Liberals elect Mark Carney as the new leader, replacing Justin Trudeau
🇨🇦 Which party is the 45th Canadian federal election betting odds favorite?
This main Canadian federal election betting market asks for the sworn-in government following the April 28 election.
🔴 Liberal Party (LPC): -440
It was once impossible to imagine the Liberals as the favorites to win the Canadian election, with the Conservatives holding a gargantuan lead by the odds earlier in the winter. However, the party has been surging amid widespread anger in the country toward Trump's approach to trade.
The Liberals started to experience positive momentum when Trudeau announced he was stepping down, and they've been soaring since Carney took over. While an election victory is still far from guaranteed, it seems clear that Canadians' desire for change may not mean the party after all.
The Liberals are far ahead as favorites while striving for a majority government. A recent poll from Ipsos shows that 41% of respondents would support the Liberals. However, they lost slight ground since the debate last week, with the Conservatives and Pierre Poilievre rising up two percentage points to 38% in the same poll.
But the Liberals maintain an overwhelming and growing advantage by the odds. While it's far from a rule, the Ontario provincial government has been largely the opposite of the federal government over the last three decades. Ontario elected PC Doug Ford to a third government on Feb. 27.
Best odds: -440 via FanDuel Ontario | Implied win probability: 81.48%
🔵 Conservatives (CPC): +270
The Conservative Party of Canada has been significantly overtaken as the front-runner to form the next government at our political betting sites in Canada. The CPC once held a massive lead and has gone from -600 (85.71% implied win probability) to +270 (27.03% implied win probability) over the past month.
While the CPC hasn't won a federal election since the Trudeau-led Liberals took over in 2015, it formed two minority governments (2006 and 2008) and a majority government (2011) in the not-too-distant past.
Best odds: +270 via FanDuel Ontario | Implied win probability: 27.03%
🗳️ Next government
Sports Interaction is offering a market on what the next formed government will be. Odds via Sports Interaction as of April 22.
| Government Type | Odds (SIA) | Implied Probability | Profit ($10 bet) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Liberal Party majority | -149 | 59.88% | $6.70 |
| Conservatives majority | +450 | 18.18% | $45 |
| Liberal Party minority | +450 | 18.18% | $45 |
| Conservatives minority | +400 | 20.0% | $40 |
Terms and conditions apply.
🪑 How many seats will the Liberal Party win?
The Liberals are the new favorites to win the election, but how many seats will they win? Odds via FanDuel Ontario as of April 22.
| Party | Odds (FanDuel Ontario) | Implied Probability | Profit ($10 bet) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 99 or below | +3400 | 2.86% | $340 |
| 100 to 119 | +1900 | 5% | $190 |
| 120 to 139 | +1100 | 8.33% | $110 |
| 140 to 159 | +850 | 10.53% | $85 |
| 160 to 179 | -160 | 61.54% | $6.25 |
| 180 to 199 | +170 | 37.04% | $17 |
🪑 How many seats will the Conservative Party win?
The Conservatives are playing catchup in the polls, but how many seats will they win? Odds via FanDuel Ontario as of April 22.
| Party | Odds (FanDuel Ontario) | Implied Probability | Profit ($10 bet) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 99 or below | +1900 | 5% | $190 |
| 100 to 119 | +550 | 15.38% | $55 |
| 120 to 139 | +380 | 20.83% | $38 |
| 140 to 159 | -140 | 58.33% | $7.14 |
| 160 to 179 | +210 | 32.26% | $21 |
| 180 to 199 | +950 | 9.52% | $95 |
🪑 How many seats will the Bloc Quebecois win?
The Bloc Quebecois have slipped behind the Liberals across many regions of their home province. How many seats will they win? Odds via FanDuel Ontario as of April 22.
| Party | Odds (FanDuel Ontario) | Implied Probability | Profit ($10 bet) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 to 9 | +1400 | 6.67% | $140 |
| 10 to 19 | +125 | 44.44% | $12.50 |
| 20 to 29 | -160 | 61.54% | $6.25 |
| 30 to 39 | +1100 | 8.33% | $110 |
| 40 or above | +2400 | 4% | $240 |
🪑 How many seats will the NDP win?
The NDP once looked like a rising powerhouse, but polling shows them slipping nationwide. How many seats will they win? Odds via FanDuel Ontario as of April 22, 2025.
| Party | Odds (FanDuel Ontario) | Implied Probability | Profit ($10 bet) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 to 4 | +300 | 25% | $30 |
| 5 to 9 | +195 | 33.90% | $19.50 |
| 10 to 14 | -180 | 64.29% | $5.56 |
| 15 or above | +1000 | 9.09% | $100 |
❓Canadian general federal election FAQs
Where can I bet on the Canadian federal election?
You can bet on the Canadian Federal Election at our best Ontario sports betting apps and our political betting sites in Canada. You'll find selections generally under "Politics" or "Novelty."
We're starting to see extra markets emerge, such as the date of the election and which party will become the official opposition.
Who is the favorite for the next Canadian federal election?
The Liberal Party of Canada is the favorite to win the next Canadian Federal Election, with odds of -440 representing an 81.48% implied win probability.
Who won the previous Canadian federal election?
The Liberal Party were elected to a minority government in 2021 and have been in power since 2013.
When is the next Canadian federal election?
The next Canadian federal election is set for Monday, April 28.
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