2025 Food City 500 Predictions at Bristol Today: Best NASCAR Prop Bets, Expert Picks & Odds
Bristol Motor Speedway is the site for today's NASCAR event. Our 2025 Food City 500 predictions for Bristol expect Christopher Bell to fare well at one of the most historic venues on the circuit.
After losing Ryan Blaney (+800) in absolutely heartbreaking fashion at Darlington, we look to get back on track at one of our favorite races to watch, attend, and even handicap. The steeply banked, half-mile concrete oval provides plenty of excitement, but who do the NASCAR odds favor?
Our Food City 500 expert picks and NASCAR prop bets recommend the best ways to play today's race.
📊 2025 Food City odds & favorites at Bristol
Here are the latest Food City odds and favorites at BetMGM as of Sunday afternoon at Bristol.
🥇 Food City 500 betting favorites 🥇
- Kyle Larson, +250 ($10 to win $25)
- Denny Hamlin, +400 ($10 to win $40)
- Christopher Bell, +800 ($10 to win $80)
- Ryan Blaney, +800 ($10 to win $80)
- William Byron, +900 ($10 to win $90)
- Chase Elliott, +1100 ($10 to win $110)
- Alex Bowman, +1200 ($10 to win $120)
- Ty Gibbs, +1600 ($10 to win $160)
- Joey Logano, +1800 ($10 to win $180)
- Chase Briscoe, +3000 ($10 to win $300)
- Kyle Busch, +3000 ($10 to win $300)
- Brad Keselowski, +3000 ($10 to win $300)
- Tyler Reddick, +3500 ($10 to win $350)
- Josh Berry, +4000 ($10 to win $400)
- Chris Buescher, +4000 ($10 to win $400)
- Ricky Stenhouse Jr., +4000 ($10 to win $400)
- Bubba Wallace, +4000 ($10 to win $400)
- Ross Chastain, +5000 ($10 to win $500)
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🏁 Food City 500 predictions, expert picks & best bets at Bristol
Bristol Motor Speedway is tucked away in the mountains on the Tennessee-Virginia line, earning the nickname “Thunder Valley.” As a half-mile track, top speeds aren’t that high. But with such steep banking and a traditional oval shape, the average green flag speeds are about 20 mph faster than at another half-mile track, Martinsville.
Last Fall, NASCAR applied tire rubber to Bristol’s surface to encourage multi-lane groove racing, but due to poor results in practice in qualifying, the sport pivoted to PJ1 Trackbite before the green flag. NASCAR opted to apply PJ1 before the weekend, leaving tire resin in the dust. But despite the change, Kyle Larson led 462 of 500 laps.
With a full weekend for drivers to get ready for the PJ1, this race may more closely mirror the last event run completely on PJ1, the 2023 Bristol Night Race. That saw Denny Hamlin, Christopher Bell, and even Ty Gibbs lead 100-plus laps. With those factors in mind, I predict Christopher Bell will win the Food City 500 at Bristol.
🏆 Pick to win Food City 500: Christopher Bell (+650 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
I don’t love Bell at only +650, but Bristol is tricky, especially with the PJ1 on the surface again. Last year’s Bristol Night Race saw minimal passing. The last full weekend on PJ1 saw a more competitive race, and it also saw Bell win the pole, sweep both stages, and lead the most laps.
Bell is yet to find Victory Lane at Bristol in the Cup Series, but there are some signs he’ll find it soon. He won here in the Xfinity Series back in 2019, and he also scored a runner-up result in August 2022. Further, since the NextGen car debuted in 2022, Bell has an average finish of 5.5 here in Thunder Valley.
There isn’t much value here, as Bell is only +650 (13.3%), but Bristol is no stranger to chalk. The last three winners here are Denny Hamlin (twice) and Kyle Larson, all of whom started in the first two rows. The lone exception in the NextGen era is Chris Buescher, who came in at +12500 in 2022 after starting in 20th and leading the most laps.
The driver who led the second-most laps that night? Bell. With a $10 bet returning $65, Bell’s odds are a far better deal than Hamlin’s and Larson’s.
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💎 Best value bet to win Food City 500: Josh Berry (+3500 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐
Josh Berry comes from a short-track racing background. The Tennesseean grew up coming to races here at the Last Great Coliseum. With his odds to win at Bristol up at +3500, meaning a mere $10 bet would return a nice $350, it’s a good idea to target the local in this spot. Unlike Bell, he doesn’t have the most impressive resume here, so we’ll have to do some digging.
Berry never did anything of note here in the Xfinity Series on race day. He crashed out twice and finished seventh once, which doesn’t really jump off the page. In Cup last year, he finished 12th in the spring and 29th in the fall. The spring race, in which he led 25 laps and finished 10th in the first stage, suggests he could run up front in his now-improved equipment.
Note that I specified “race day” - Berry was very impressive here in qualifying, starting on the front row in two of his three starts. He also started as a runner-up in last year’s Cup race in the spring. Ultimately, I trust Berry at this price because of his excellent qualifying form at Bristol. Make sure to lock him in before that gets underway.
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🎯 Best long shot to win Food City 500: Noah Gragson (+15000 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐
Look, Noah Gragson probably won’t win the Food City 500, but this track is no stranger to surprise winners. Again, Buescher came in at +12500 after leading the most laps in 2022, so miracles can happen. That’s probably what Gragson will need on Sunday, but there are a few data points that suggest he deserves shorter odds.
For one, Gragson is a two-time Bristol winner in the Xfinity Series who never started worse than 10th. That didn’t translate to much success here last year, as he piloted the No. 10 Ford to 34th in the spring and 12th in the fall, but the positive trend is a good sign. So, too, is his new team–Michael McDowell piloted his Front Row Racing No. 34 Ford to 11th in both races here last season.
💰 Best Food City 500 prop bets & picks at Bristol
We’ll be revisiting some of the drivers discussed above with our Food City 500 prop bets, but before we do, I’ll break down a matchup bet involving Kyle Busch, the fourth-winningest driver at Bristol of all time.
🔥 Best prop bet for Food City 500: Brad Keselowski vs. Kyle Busch (-140 via ESPN BET) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
Kyle Busch may be an eight-time Bristol winner, but since joining Richard Childress Racing, he hasn’t finished inside the top 15. Busch has led a total of five laps here in three starts with his new team–along with a pathetic average finish of 23.3. His teammate, Austin Dillon, has been similarly bad with an average finish of 20.7.
On the other side of this matchup, Brad Keselowski, a three-time Bristol winner, has been much more effective here. Unlike Busch, he has two top 15s–both of which were also top 10s. His average finish (12.3) and RFK Racing’s solid form here point to a ton of value on this market, even if Keselowski’s odds are -140 (58.3%).
🚀 Best long-shot prop bet for Food City 500: Noah Gragson T10 (+400 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
I understand a bet with +400 odds may not tickle your fancy for a long shot, but pairing it with bets on Gragson to win (+15000 at Caesars) and to score a top five (+1400 at BetMGM) makes for quite a fun long shot sweat. Remember, Gragson has found Victory Lane here twice in the Xfinity Series, so we know he can run well here.
The concern is whether Front Row Racing will have enough speed.
Michael McDowell’s pair of 11th-place finishes here last season gives me some hope. McDowell’s average green flag speed ranked 16th, too, so the results weren’t complete flukes. Gragson is a better driver at Bristol than McDowell, and I expect him to outperform the former Front Row Racing driver.
📈 Food City 500 trends & Bristol Motor Speedway history
Here are a few Food City 500 trends to consider before betting on Sunday's race at Bristol
🏎️ Keep an eye on qualifying! The last three Bristol winners all started in the first two rows, and seven of the last eight winners started within the first three.
🏎️ Winning the first stage doesn’t mean that much. Since 2017, only two drivers who won the first stage went on to win the race, Kyle Busch in 2017 and Kyle Larson in 2024.
🏎️ Hendrick or Gibbs? Since the NextGen car debuted in 2022, Joe Gibbs Racing has accounted for two wins and 40% of the top five finishers. Hendrick has one win and another 40% of the top five.
💡 How to bet on NASCAR at Bristol
Betting on races at Bristol Motor Speedway is a blast, and it’s quite distinct from virtually every other track on the schedule. The lone “comparator” track, Dover, is a similar shape and features similar banking, but is a full mile long. Here are my NASCAR betting strategy tips for Bristol:
- Long shots can win here–or at least score top 10s. Chris Buescher won his first race since rejoining RFK Racing here in 2022. Erik Jones nearly got his first win here in 2017 before finishing second, and Matt DiBenedetto almost did the same in 2019.
- Pick one (or two) favorites. While Bristol can produce unexpected outcomes, it doesn’t always. Big-name favorites Denny Hamlin and Kyle Larson have won four of the last five races here. In the lone exception, which came in 2022, Chase Elliott nearly won as another big-name favorite.
🏆 Past Bristol Motor Speedway winners
Here is a look at the last 10 Bristol Motor Speedway winners entering Sunday's race.
| Year | Driver | Team | Manufacturer |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2024 | Kyle Larson | Hendrick Motorsports | Chevrolet |
| Spring 2024 | Denny Hamlin | Joe Gibbs Racing | Toyota |
| 2023 | Denny Hamlin | Joe Gibbs Racing | Toyota |
| 2022 | Chris Buescher | RFK Racing | Ford |
| 2021 | Kyle Larson | Hendrick Motorsports | Chevrolet |
| Fall 2020 | Kevin Harvick | Stewart-Haas Racing | Ford |
| Spring 2020 | Brad Keselowski | Team Penske | Ford |
| Summer 2019 | Denny Hamlin | Joe Gibbs Racing | Toyota |
| Spring 2019 | Kyle Busch | Joe Gibbs Racing | Toyota |
| Summer 2018 | Kurt Busch | Stewart-Haas Racing | Ford |
📺 How to watch the 2025 Food City 500 at Bristol
📅 Race date: Sunday, April 13, 2025
🕒 Start time: 3 p.m. ET
📍 Track: Bristol Motor Speedway (Bristol, Tenn.)
📺 TV: FS1 | Streaming: Fox Sports App
❓ Food City 500 FAQs
Who is favored to win the Food City 500?
Kyle Larson is the favorite to win the 2025 Food City 500 at +250 (28.57%), which would yield $25 profit from a $10 bet.
What are the odds for Bristol?
Behind Larson (+250), Denny Hamlin (+400), Christopher Bell (+800), and Ryan Blaney (+800) are other top drivers, per the current NASCAR betting odds.
What time is the 2025 Food City 500?
The 2025 Food City 500 starts at 3 p.m. ET (FS1) on Sunday, April 13 from Bristol Motor Speedway.
How to watch the 2025 Food City 500
You can watch the Food City 500 on (FS1) or stream it via the FOX Sports App.
Who won at Bristol last year?
Last year, Kyle Larson won the Bristol Night Race after opening at odds of +375 to do so.
🏁 Best NASCAR betting sites for Food City 500 at Bristol
Looking to bet on the Food City 500 at Bristol Motor Speedway? Here are our top-rated NASCAR best sports betting sites as determined by our expert team at Sportsbook Review, along with our best sportsbook promos ahead of Sunday's race at 3 p.m. ET.
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