NBA Finals MVP Odds & Favorites 2025: Gilgeous-Alexander, Tatum Lead the Way

The NBA postseason is underway, which means the NBA Finals are less than two months away as the Boston Celtics look to repeat as champions.

But it's not Boston who leads the NBA championship odds, it's the Oklahoma City Thunder, which is why Shai Gilgeous-Alexander holds a slight lead over Jayson Tatum by the NBA Finals MVP odds.

Will the Thunder and SGA be able to live up to the hype? Will Tatum lead the Celtics to a second straight title, this time capturing MVP honors? Or will another player emerge victorious and take the NBA Finals MVP while leading his team to a championship?

📊 NBA Finals MVP odds 2025

NBA Finals MVP odds from our best sports betting sites.

• Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: The Thunder own the best record in the NBA (68-14), and SGA leads the NBA MVP odds by a wide margin, which is why his NBA Finals MVP odds are so short already
• Jayson Tatum: Tatum led the Celtics to a title last year but didn't win NBA Finals MVP in the process, and this year it might be even harder with how strong the Thunder and Cleveland Cavaliers have been
• Donovan Mitchell: Despite leading the No. 1-seeded Cavaliers in the Eastern Conference, Mitchell has significantly longer odds than Tatum
• Jaylen Brown: Last year's winner of NBA Finals MVP, Brown will have a tough time repeating, given a strong playoff field this year and his teammate being a top-two favorite
• Luka Doncic: The former Dallas Maverick might be the most interesting bet given how much the Los Angeles Lakers rely on him and the fact that L.A. will avoid OKC until the Western Conference Finals

🏆 NBA Finals MVP odds favorite 2025

🌩️ Shai Gilgeous-Alexander NBA Finals MVP odds (+190)

It's hard to argue against SGA being the favorite to win NBA Finals MVP. He's the runaway MVP favorite and just led the Thunder to a historically impressive regular season, locking in the sixth-most wins in NBA history (68). 

But for the Thunder to win the title, and SGA to earn NBA Finals MVP, OKC will have a gauntlet to get through in the Western Conference. Assuming they get through the first round unscathed, they'll have to take on either Nikola Jokic and the Denver Nuggets or James Harden and the Los Angeles Clippers. Then it's likely either the surging Houston Rockets or the Doncic/LeBron James-led Lakers.

While Gilgeous-Alexander has put together an electric season, and the Thunder rank top three in both offensive (120.3) and defensive rating (107.5), these odds are wildly short. Sure, SGA led the NBA in win shares (16.7), but the team still needs to win four series' and it's not like the Thunder aren't loaded with other potential NBA Finals MVP winners. It's not crazy to think that Jalen Williams or Chet Holmgren could give him some competition for the award.

Although I think SGA has a strong shot at winning NBA Finals MVP, this isn't a price I like with a $10 winning bet paying just a $19 profit.

Best odds: +190 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 34.48%

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🍀 Jayson Tatum NBA Finals MVP odds (+290)

If you think I'm hating on SGA's price for NBA Finals MVP, close your eyes because I cannot fathom why Tatum's odds are this short already. He was the favorite last year and couldn't even take home the award when the Celtics entered the playoffs as everyone's pick to win the NBA Finals.

So in a year with a tougher field, in which Boston isn't even the No. 1 seed in the Eastern Conference, why are Tatum's odds already so short that they pay just a $29 profit on a $10 winning bet? Yes, he's the best player on one of the best teams in the NBA ... but SGA's odds should be even shorter if Tatum's are +290.

Tatum averaged his fewest PPG this season of the last four years (26.8), had his lowest effective field-goal percentage of the last three years (53.7%), shot worse from 3-point range this season than any other year of his career (34.3%), and tied his career-high in turnovers per game (2.9). Tatum also accounted for fewer win shares this season (9.5) than in each of his previous three campaigns. 

He's obviously still an All-Star talent and capable of winning the award, but I just don't think he's a smart play at a price this much shorter than Mitchell and Doncic.

Best odds: +290 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 25.64%

👀 NBA Finals MVP candidate to watch

⭐️ Luka Doncic NBA Finals MVP odds (+2500)

I only trust four teams in the NBA playoff field to bring home the tile: The Thunder, Celtics, Cavaliers, and Lakers. That's why I think Doncic is the best value play for NBA Finals MVP with his odds being significantly longer than SGA's and Tatum's, and still noticeably longer than Mitchell's.

Even with James on this team, if L.A. is going to win a title under JJ Redick, it's going to be because of Doncic. The man led the Mavericks to the NBA Finals last year, and look at that team now after Nico Harrison shipped him to the City of Angels.

Doncic has also fit right in with L.A., averaging 28.2 PPG, 8.1 RPG, 7.5 APG, and shooting 37.9% from behind the arc in 28 games with the Lakers. He's taken up another notch lately too, averaging 30.6 PPG and hitting 41.7% of his threes since the beginning of March. 

We already saw him go on a playoff run last year, and this time around, he has the second-greatest player in NBA history by his side. And if Doncic can win his first NBA Finals MVP, a $10 bet pays a $250 profit.

Best odds: +2500 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 3.85%

🤖 NBA Finals MVP AI prediction

For entertainment purposes, we asked ChatGPT to analyze historical trends and NBA stats before predicting the winner of this year's NBA Finals MVP. Our AI prediction projects Shai Gilgeous-Alexander will win NBA Finals MVP. 

🖥️ AI NBA Finals MVP prediction: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

🏀 Dominant season performance: SGA led the Thunder to a historic 68–14 record - the sixth-best in NBA history - while averaging 32.7 points per game
🏀 Team's championship contention: The Thunder are the current favorites to win the NBA title, with odds at +170, and as the team's cornerstone, SGA's performance is integral to their title aspirations
🏀 Top betting odds for NBA Finals MVP: SGA leads the betting odds for NBA Finals MVP at +190, ahead of other contenders like Jayson Tatum (+290) and Donovan Mitchell (+1000), reflecting strong confidence in his potential to secure the award

🤔 Betting takeaway: ChatGPT's AI prediction would mean SGA (+190) winning his first NBA Finals MVP. ChatGPT is a large language model and not specifically designed for predicting sporting events, so these projections should be viewed as entertainment or a supplementary data point for your NBA Finals MVP betting research.

🔢 NBA Finals MVP opening odds

Odds via DraftKings.

• Jayson Tatum: +600
• Jaylen Brown: +900
• Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: +1000
• Nikola Jokic: +1000
• Luka Doncic: +1200
• Joel Embiid: +1300
• Jalen Brunson: +1300
• Giannis Antetokounmpo: +1600
• Anthony Edwards: +1800
• Stephen Curry: +3500

🏅 Past NBA Finals MVP award winners

💡 How to bet on NBA Finals MVP

NBA Finals MVP odds are a way for sportsbooks to set the probability of a specific player winning the MVP award for the NBA Finals. These odds represent the sportsbook's estimation of a player's likelihood to be named the NBA Finals MVP based on various factors such as performance, team success, and historical trends.

The odds for each player are determined based on a combination of factors, including their regular-season and playoff performance, team success, historical trends, public opinion, and betting patterns. Sportsbooks adjust the odds throughout the series based on the players' performances and other relevant factors.

The shorter the odds, the more likely the player is to win the award in the eyes of the sportsbooks. If a player is +260 to win NBA Finals MVP, that means they have a greater chance of winning it than a player that is +1700. However, a bet pays out more if the odds are longer.

It's important to note that odds are not a guarantee but rather a representation of the sportsbook's estimation of the probability of a particular outcome. Different sportsbooks may offer slightly different odds, so it's advisable to compare odds from multiple sources to find the best value.

📖 How to read NBA Finals MVP odds

Reading NBA Finals MVP odds involves understanding the implied probability and potential payouts associated with each player's odds of winning the Finals MVP. NBA Finals MVP odds are typically presented in American odds.

These use plus and minus symbols to indicate underdogs and favorites, respectively. For instance, if a player's odds are +500, a $100 bet would result in a $500 profit if the player wins, while odds of -200 would mean that a $200 bet is required to win $100 in profit.

When reading NBA Finals MVP odds, lower odds indicate that a player has a higher probability of winning the award, while higher odds suggest that a player is considered less likely to win. Bettors should consider factors such as a player's performance and narrative appeal when evaluating NBA Finals MVP odds.

It's also important to compare odds across different sportsbooks to identify the best value bets. Additionally, bettors should keep in mind that Finals MVP odds can fluctuate throughout the year based on player performance, injuries, and other factors, so staying informed and monitoring odds changes can be crucial for making informed betting decisions.

❓ NBA Finals MVP FAQs

Who is the favorite to win the 2025 NBA Finals MVP?

Oklahoma City Thunder guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is the favorite to win NBA Finals MVP. His odds are +190, which imply a 34.48% win probability.

Who won the NBA Finals MVP last year?

Boston Celtics All-Star Jaylen Brown won NBA Finals MVP last year. Brown's shortest odds of -240 before Boston's series-clinching Game 5 win implied a 70.59% win probability.

When will the 2025 NBA Finals MVP be announced?

The 2025 NBA Finals begin on June 5, 2025. The NBA Finals MVP will be announced following the conclusion of the series.

💰 NBA betting odds pages

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