Grizzlies vs. Thunder Prediction, Game 1 Expert Picks & NBA Odds: Today's Best Bets for NBA Playoffs
After knocking the Mavericks out in the play-in tournament, the No. 8 Memphis Grizzlies (48-34) won the right to take on the No. 1 Oklahoma City Thunder (68-14). While Ja Morant seems to have put his ankle injury behind him, this series will nonetheless be a tough task.
Game 1 gets underway today at 1 p.m. ET (ABC) in Oklahoma City’s Paycom Center. The Thunder are a whopping 13-point favorite at our NBA betting sites with the total set to 227, so let’s dive into the NBA odds, expert picks, and player props as we discuss our Grizzlies vs. Thunder prediction, including today's top NBA picks.
📺 Game info & where to watch Grizzlies vs. Thunder live today
📅 Date: Saturday, April 20
🕗 Time: 1 p.m. ET
📍 Location: Paycom Center (Oklahoma City)
📺 TV: ABC
💻 Streaming: ESPN+
💰Early betting insights for Grizzlies vs. Thunder Game 1
Heading into the weekend we got some betting insights from BetMGM.
While the spread hasn't moved from 12.5 points, the Thunder are getting a majority of tickets (67%) and the bulk of the handle (87%).
Similarly, the total hasn't shifted from 226.5. We're seeing a split in the betting trends though, with the bulk of the tickets on the Over (64%), while money is coming in on the Under (67%).
💡 Grizzlies vs. Thunder Game 1 prediction & expert picks: NBA Playoffs - Sunday, April 20
🎯 Score prediction: Thunder 116, Grizzlies 100
✅ Best bet: Thunder -13 (-110 via DraftKings)
📰 Grizzlies vs. Thunder Game 1 NBA preview & matchup analysis
While it’s obvious to most that the Oklahoma City Thunder have been the best team in the NBA this year, the extent to which they have paced the league can be hard to track. Fortunately, the efficiency stats make this pretty clear. Led by Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, OKC leads the NBA in net rating (+12.7). The gap between the Thunder and sixth-ranked Grizzlies (+4.7) is wider than the gap between the Grizzlies and the 23rd-ranked Suns (-3).
Bettors should expect a fast-paced game but not necessarily a high-scoring one. While the Thunder rank fourth in pace since the All-Star break, barely trailing the third-ranked Grizzlies, Oklahoma City also ranks fifth in defensive efficiency (110.4). The Grizz rank a far inferior 18th (115.8), which bodes poorly against the Thunders’ league-leading offense since the pause (122.9). This game could get ugly - and fast - no matter how scared other teams are of OKC.
While skeptics would be right to point out that Oklahoma City head coach Mark Daigneault and most of his team’s core have just 10 games of playoff experience, through which they are 6-4, that shouldn’t hold the Thunder back this year. They’ll take on a Grizzlies team with plenty of playoff experience but an interim head coach at the helm in Tuomas Iisalo. But since Iisalo took over on March 28, the Grizz are still just 18th in net rating (+1.4).
A deeper look at Memphis’s offensive scheme raises serious red flags. On the year, 28% of Memphis’ plays have ended with spot-up shots, second-most in the NBA - yet they rank just 19th when it comes to actually scoring via the playtype. Meanwhile, Oklahoma City’s defense excels at forcing low-percentage spot-ups, as they face the play more often than any other NBA team, yet rank as the third-best team in points allowed per play against it. I expect Memphis to settle for too many low-percentage looks to keep up with this Oklahoma City team, especially in Game 1.
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💰 Grizzlies vs. Thunder Game 1 picks & best bets
✅ Against the spread pick: Thunder -13 (-110 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
✅ Moneyline pick: Thunder ML (-850 via DraftKings) ⭐
✅ Over/ Under pick: Under 227.5 (-110 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
⛹️ Best Grizzlies vs. Thunder Game 1 predictions
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🔥 Thunder -13 ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Oklahoma City’s massive advantage in net rating - eight points per 100 possessions - may not be as wide as the spread for this game, but that shouldn’t matter in Game 1 of this series. Memphis is coming in with a rest disadvantage, and while they are 11-9 against the spread in such situations this year, Oklahoma City is a dominant 10-5-1 against the spread with a rest advantage.
While home favorites are usually overrated, Oklahoma City has been consistently underrated in such spots this year. They’re 27-12-2 against the spread as a home favorite with an average margin of victory of 15.2, good for an average cover margin of 4.4. Meanwhile, Memphis is a thoroughly unimpressive 10-11-1 against the spread as a road underdog.
Oklahoma City swept Memphis in the regular season with wins of 13 and 17 points on the road and 24 and 19 points at home. Lock in the -13 and root for a blowout.
Best odds: -110 via DraftKings
🔥 Thunder ML ⭐
The analysis above applies here, but this pick falls from four to one star because of the steep price you’ve got to pay. At -850 on DraftKings (and longer than -1000 elsewhere), you need the Thunder to win 89.5% of the time just to turn a profit. That margin just isn’t worth the minimal return you’d get for including this play in a parlay or betting it straight.
Best odds: -850 via DraftKings
🔥 Under 227.5 ⭐⭐⭐
Although we’ve got two lightning-fast teams on the floor to kick off today's action, I’m partial to the Under, largely because I don’t trust the Grizzlies to hold up their end of the bargain. With a spread of -13 favoring Oklahoma City, the implied final tally for this game is 120.3-107.3.
The Grizzlies surpassed 107.3 in just one of their three games versus the Thunder in the regular season. While the Thunder picked up the slack and got three of their four meetings over the current total, I expect a slow fourth quarter as Oklahoma City grinds out a Game 1 win, keeping us under this lofty projection.
Best odds: -110 via FanDuel
🚀 Best Grizzlies vs. Thunder Game 1 parlay picks & SGP odds
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🔢 Best Grizzlies vs. Thunder odds & betting lines
🛒 Shop around for the best Grizzlies vs. Thunder odds from our best sports betting apps.
📡 Grizzlies vs. Thunder live odds
🛜 Game already started? You can still get in on the action with our best live betting sites.
🪧 Grizzlies vs. Thunder opening odds
Opening odds via BetMGM.
- Spread: Grizzlies +12.5 (-110) | Thunder -12.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Grizzlies +525 | Thunder -800
- Over/Under: Over 226.5 (-110) | Under 226.5 (-110)
📊 Grizzlies vs. Thunder stats: Records, trends & best odds today
📈 For full team stats and betting line history, follow our Pistons vs. Knicks matchup.
🚑 Grizzlies vs. Thunder injury report
📋 For the latest injury news, check today's official NBA injury report.
🗳️ Who will win Grizzlies vs. Thunder?
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