Heat vs. Cavaliers Prediction, Odds & Expert Picks: Game 1 NBA Playoff Preview
The No. 8 seed Miami Heat (37-45) advanced through the play-in tournament despite not having Jimmy Butler on the roster anymore, but is that the end of the road this postseason? Can Miami make some noise against the No. 1 seed Cleveland Cavaliers (64-18) today in Game 1 of their Eastern Conference playoff series?
Tipoff from Rocket Arena in Cleveland is at 7 p.m. ET (TNT), but the oddsmakers aren’t expecting the Heat to put up too much of a fight. The Cavaliers are 12-point betting favorites with the total trading at 215; our Heat vs. Cavaliers prediction, including today’s top NBA picks, looks at whether the top seed in the East can get the job done.
📡 How to watch Heat vs. Cavaliers live (Game 1)
📅 Sunday, April 20
🕗 7 p.m. ET
📍 Rocket Arena (Cleveland)
📺 TNT | 🛜 Max
💰Early betting insights for Heat vs. Cavaliers Game 1
Heading into the weekend we got some betting insights from BetMGM.
The spread has been pretty stagnant, opening and holding at 12.5 points despite the Heat handling the majority of tickets (75%) and money (89%).
The total (215.5) also hasn't shifted. The Under is getting a slight edge in the number of tickets written (54%) but a strong majority of the handle (88%).
📊 Best Heat vs. Cavaliers odds, records, stats & trends - Sunday, April 20
📈 Check out our Heat vs. Cavaliers matchup info for full team stats and betting line history.
💡 Heat vs. Cavaliers predictions, expert picks & best bets: Game 1
🎯 Score prediction: Cavaliers 109, Heat 107
✅ Best bet: Heat +12.5 (-108 via DraftKings)
📰 Heat vs. Cavaliers NBA preview & matchup analysis
Death, taxes, and the Heat becoming a menace just in time for the postseason.
Since the All-Star break, Miami ranks an acceptable 12th in net rating (+3). However, over the last 10 games, the Heat have been downright impressive, ranking third (+12.1) with a balanced attack. Their offense ranks fourth in efficiency (121) while their defense ranks sixth (108.9). Of course, this sample ignores the fact that several teams had already locked up their postseason seeding, but it’s worth at least pointing out Miami’s strong form.
When we zoom back out to just games since the break, Miami’s 12th-place ranking doesn’t look that impressive relative to Cleveland’s sixth-place ranking (+6.8). The Cavs are fifth in offensive efficiency over that sample while Miami is 19th. That said, Miami ranks ninth in defensive efficiency, edging out 14th-ranked Cleveland. It’s also worth noting that the Heat made a meaningful change to their rotation for the play-in tournament, pulling Terry Rozier, whose net rating of -9.8 is embarrassing.
While the Heat are difficult to project due to the ever-changing nature of their rotation this season, Cleveland is less tricky. The Cavs relied on the pick-and-roll this year, leading the NBA in the frequency of plays by the pick-and-roll ball handler (21.8%) and ranking fifth in the frequency of plays by the pick-and-roll man (6.9%). They were also the NBA’s second-best team by points per play generated from both playtypes.
The Heat have been a decent defensive team against the pick-and-roll. On the year, they rank 18th in points per play by the pick-and-roll ball handler, which isn’t great, but they rank second in the metric for plays by the pick-and-roll man. They held Jarrett Allen to only 22 points across three matchups this year, so don’t expect a ton of scoring from the veteran big man. While they went only 1-2 against the Cavs, they are 2-1 at keeping it within double digits.
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💰 Heat vs. Cavaliers picks & best bets
✅ Against the spread pick: Heat +12.5 (-108 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
✅ Moneyline pick: Heat ML (+550 via bet365) ⭐⭐
✅ Over/Under pick: Over 214.5 (-108 via BetRivers) ⭐⭐
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⛹️ Best Heat vs. Cavaliers Game 1 predictions
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🔥 Heat +12.5 ⭐⭐⭐⭐
While these aren’t the Heat that made the NBA Finals as a No. 8 seed - and these aren’t the Cavaliers that folded like a cheap suit against the Knicks in 2023 and the Celtics in 2024 - I have a hard time believing the spread of 12.5 is a fair number. The Heat enter this game after back-to-back wins in the play-in tournament and are playing very efficient basketball. The Cavs just took a bunch of games off down the stretch.
A number of trends raise some red flags, but I’m willing to dismiss them due to just how many points we’re getting. Cleveland is an impressive 22-17-1 against the spread when listed as a home favorite, winning by an average margin of 12 and covering by an average margin of 2.3. Cleveland is also an NBA-best 14-4 against the spread with a rest advantage, winning by an average margin of 12.4. Those margins are both within the 12.5-point spread.
Best odds: -108 via DraftKings
🔥 Heat ML ⭐⭐
The Cavaliers probably win this game. They were too good in the regular season to fumble a home opener against a team as shaky as the Heat. That said, the Heat stole three home openers as a No. 8 seed in 2023, and we’re getting them at a very friendly price of +550 to pull off something similar.
Don’t put your life savings on this line, but consider spreading some of your action between the spread and the moneyline.
Best odds: +550 via bet365
🔥 Over 214.5 ⭐⭐
I will freely admit that I don’t have a good read on this total. Miami’s postseason rotation looks a lot better than what we saw in the regular season on both ends of the floor, and with their implied team total sitting at just 101, the over is intriguing. The Heat scored 106 in regulation against the Hawks and 109 against the Bulls.
Cleveland’s offense should still generate some points, especially when the pick-and-roll ball handlers choose to pull up. I don’t think that will be enough for them to separate from Miami, though, so look for a close game down the stretch, forcing this one over the reasonable total of 214.5.
Best odds: -108 via BetRivers
🚀 Best same-game parlay (SGP) for Heat vs. Cavaliers: Game 1
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📈 Live Heat vs. Cavaliers odds & Game 1 betting lines
Latest Heat vs. Cavaliers odds from our best sports betting sites.
🪧 Heat vs. Cavaliers Game 1 opening odds
Opening odds via BetMGM.
- Spread: Heat +12.5 (-110) | Cavaliers -12.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Heat +550 | Cavaliers -800
- Over/Under: Over 215 (-105) | Under 215 (-115)
🚑 Heat vs. Cavaliers injury report & lineup notes: Game 1
📋 Follow the official NBA injury report for more injury news.
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