Heat vs. Hawks Prediction, Expert Picks & NBA Odds Tonight: Best Bets for NBA Play-In Tournament
The Eastern Conference playoff bracket will be finalized tonight when the Atlanta Hawks host the Miami Heat in the first of two NBA Play-In Tournament games today. Tipoff is set for 7 p.m. ET (TNT) from State Farm Arena in Atlanta.
While the Hawks are 1-point betting favorites to clinch the No. 8 seed, I'm backing the underdog with my Heat vs. Hawks prediction as part of our NBA picks. Be sure to follow along with all of our NBA playoffs Round 1 predictions.
📺 Game info & where to watch Heat vs. Hawks live tonight
📅 Date: Friday, April 18
🕗 Time: 7 p.m. ET
📍 Location: State Farm Arena (Atlanta)
📺 TV: TNT
💻 Streaming: Max
💡 Heat vs. Hawks prediction & expert picks: NBA Play-In Tournament - Friday, April 18
🎯 Score prediction: Heat 111, Hawks 107
✅ Best bet: Heat ML (+100 via ESPN BET)
📰 Heat vs. Hawks NBA preview & matchup analysis
No matter how you spin it, Friday night's Heat vs. Hawks matchup is one of the closest games to call throughout the campaign. Our best sportsbooks believe there's a one-point difference between the two sides, they split the season series, and they were separated by just three games in the regular season standings.
Statistics aren't the only similarities, as the narratives tie the teams together, too. Both have enjoyed their fair share of ups and downs, which included trading star players to NBA championship odds contenders. However, this allowed Atlanta and Miami to lean more heavily on rookies, who blossomed when taking on bigger roles.
Quin Snyder's team relies on its offense to get the job done. The Hawks score 118.2 points per game (fifth in the NBA) but allow 119.3 PPG (28th), which has gotten them in trouble at times. Meanwhile, Erik Spoelstra's men are nearly a perfect antithesis, scoring 110.6 PPG (24th) and allowing 109.8 PPG (seventh).
Which style translates more to postseason success? Take it away, Nico Harrison!
Miami has shown the ability to win games with its offense, as it did on Wednesday in Chicago. However, it's not often Atlanta is bringing out the clamps to win close games. Experience and versatility generally win games in the postseason, so we know which way we're leaning.
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💰 Heat vs. Hawks picks & best bets
✅ Against the spread pick: Heat +1.5 (-115 via ESPN BET) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
✅ Moneyline pick: Heat ML (+100 via ESPN BET) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
✅ Over/Under pick: Under 219 (-110 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐
⛹️ Best Heat vs. Hawks NBA Play-In Tournament predictions
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🔥 Heat +1.5 ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Neither team has been particularly proficient against the spread this season. Atlanta and Miami are both proud owners of cover rates below the median, the former being 49.4% (41-42) and the latter being 47.6% (39-43-1). The Hawks don't play well as favorites, boasting a 19-12 overall record and an 18-21-1 ATS record.
For this reason - and those we outlined earlier - we'll back the visitors, who are getting 1.5 points, despite putting on a dominant display earlier in the week.
Best odds: -115 via ESPN BET
🔥 Heat ML ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Some simply perform better when the lights are brighter. Jimmy Butler and LeBron James are two examples of individuals who possess this trait, so it's no surprise that both played for an organization (Miami) with that DNA, as well. We've witnessed it time and time again from Spoelstra's teams, and we saw it on Wednesday.
As we noted earlier, the Hawks don't want to get into a defensive duel, so they'll try and play an up-tempo, high-scoring game. The Heat are perfectly fine playing this way, especially when Tyler Herro and Co. are shooting as well as they have been recently. We'll take a gamble on Miami at even money.
Best odds: +100 via ESPN BET
🔥 Under 219 ⭐⭐⭐
Atlanta, boasting one of the league's best offenses and worst defenses, has been an automatic Over this season. Miami is no slouch either, with a 44-39 lean to the Over. However, postseason basketball is a different beast, as evidenced by both play-in games involving these teams going Under.
These Over/Under records, combined with the fact that these teams combined to go Over this total in three of four games this season, will lead to the public jumping all over the Over. We're fading them in hopes the defensive basketball we outlined above plays out on the court.
Our recommendation is to wait and see if the public sways the total closer to tipoff, with DraftKings listing an O/U of 219 at standard juice.
Best odds: -110 via DraftKings
🚀 Best Heat vs. Hawks parlay picks & SGP odds
🧪 Want to make your own SGP? Check out our NEW parlay calculator to get the best odds for any same-game parlay.
🔢 Best Heat vs. Hawks odds & betting lines
🛒 Shop around for the best Heat vs. Hawks odds from our best sports betting apps.
📡 Heat vs. Hawks live odds
🛜 Game already started? You can still get in on the action with our best live betting sites.
🪧 Heat vs. Hawks opening odds
Opening odds via BetMGM.
- Spread: Heat +1.5 (-125) | Hawks -1.5 (+105)
- Moneyline: Heat -110 | Hawks -110
- Over/Under: Over 219.5 (-110) | Under 219.5 (-110)
📊 Heat vs. Hawks stats: Records, trends & best odds today
📈 For full team stats and betting line history, follow our Heat vs. Hawks matchup.
🚑 Heat vs. Hawks injury report
📋 For the latest injury news, check today's official NBA injury report.
🗳️ Who will win Heat vs. Hawks?
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