Warriors vs. Rockets Prediction, Odds & Expert Picks: Tonight's Game 1 NBA Playoff Preview
The red-hot No. 7 seed Golden State Warriors (48-34) had to advance through the play-in tournament, but they managed to lock up the less intimidating opening-round matchup versus the No. 2 seed Houston Rockets (52-30). Tipoff from Toyota Center in Houston at 9:30 p.m. ET (TNT).
Even though Houston is at home, the market expects a very tight game - the Rockets are just 1-point betting favorites with the total set to 213.5. Let’s dive into the NBA odds, expert picks, and player props as we discuss our Warriors vs. Rockets prediction, including today’s top NBA picks.
📡 How to watch Warriors vs. Rockets live (Game 1)
📅 Sunday, April 20
🕗 9:30 p.m. ET
📍 Toyota Center (Houston)
📺 TNT | 🛜 Max
📊 Best Warriors vs. Rockets odds, records, stats & trends - Sunday, April 20
📈 Check out our Warriors vs. Rockets matchup info for full team stats and betting line history.
💡 Warriors vs. Rockets predictions, expert picks & best bets: Game 1
🎯 Score prediction: Rockets 109, Warriors 106
✅ Best bet: Rockets -1 (-110 via FanDuel)
📰 Warriors vs. Rockets NBA preview & matchup analysis
One of today’s games is not like the others.
The other No. 1 and No. 2 seeds are all double-digit favorites of at least 12.5 points to win their series-openers at home, but the Rockets are basically a pick ’em. Some of that makes sense -Houston missed both the playoffs and the play-in tournament last year, so it’s the first trip to the postseason for most of this roster. Meanwhile, this veteran-loaded Golden State Warriors team has plenty of playoff and championship experience.
However, while Houston lacks playoff experience, its head coach, Ime Udoka, does not. Udoka piloted the Boston Celtics to an NBA Finals appearance against the Warriors during the 2021-22 season. The Celtics went 14-10 in that postseason, which comprises Udoka’s entire playoff record. Warriors head coach Steve Kerr is 99-41 in the playoffs over eight appearances. Kerr is also 73-65-2 against the spread in playoff games through that sample with an average margin of 6.4 points. If you believe playoff experience matters, Golden State has a clear advantage.
When we look at the numbers, it’s just as easy to parse out Golden State’s advantage. The Warriors rank third in net rating since the All-Star break (+9.1), edging out the eighth-ranked Rockets (+5.1). The Warriors lead the NBA in defensive rating (109.3) and are fourth in points allowed in the paint per game (46.4) over that sample. At this point, it’s worth noting that the Rockets had locked up the No. 2 seed with several games left on the schedule, while Golden State needed to keep winning, which may contribute to that spread.
Houston’s offense uses an above-average share of post-ups (5.3%) and putbacks (7.2%, leading the NBA) but is quite balanced overall. Those plays could be effective against this Golden State team, which ranks fifth-worst in both points allowed per play versus post-ups (1.08) and putbacks (1.12). These plays may seem insignificant, but with Golden State’s offense frequently using off-screen shots (7.7%, leading the NBA), it’s worth noting that Houston’s defense ranks third-best versus off-screen shots.
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💰 Warriors vs. Rockets picks & best bets
✅ Against the spread pick: Rockets -1 (-110 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
✅ Moneyline pick: Rockets ML (-118 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
✅ Over/Under pick: Over 213.5 (-110 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐
⛹️ Best Warriors vs. Rockets Game 1 predictions
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🔥 Rockets -1 ⭐⭐⭐⭐
If Steve Kerr has one million haters, I’m one of them. If Steve Kerr has five haters, I’m one of them. If Steve Kerr has zero haters, then–well, you know the rest. Kerr has done nothing of note without the greatest shooter in NBA history, Stephen Curry, and while this Curry-Jimmy Butler tandem is terrifying in the postseason, let’s not forget that these two have 72 years between them.
While the Rockets have had some time to get fresh, the Warriors have had zero games off. Houston enters this game at a considerable rest advantage. The Golden State Warriors are just 8-12-2 against the spread with a rest disadvantage, with an average margin of -0.6. And, for all the virtues of postseason Curry and Butler, Kerr’s Warriors are a dismal 5-8 against the spread in the playoffs since the 2022-23 season.
Best odds: -110 via FanDuel
🔥 Rockets ML ⭐⭐⭐
With the spread at -1, there isn’t much difference between the spread and the moneyline. I would personally advise taking the extra squeeze of value with the spread when the only risk is a push, which is why this gets three stars while the spread gets four.
Best odds: -118 via FanDuel
🔥 Over 213.5 ⭐⭐
I don’t love the total here, but with Houston 33-18 to the over in conference games and 12-5 to the over when playing with a rest advantage, I can’t help but believe in the over. Houston’s offense should be able to take advantage of Golden State’s defensive weaknesses against post-ups and putbacks, and while that won’t lead to a ton of extra points, it could lead to enough to get us over this number. Furthermore, with a competitive fourth quarter likely ahead, don’t expect either side to play at an aggressively slow pace.
Best odds: -110 via FanDuel
🚀 Best same-game parlay (SGP) for Warriors vs. Rockets: Game 1
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📈 Live Warriors vs. Rockets odds & Game 1 betting lines
Latest Warriors vs. Rockets odds from our best sports betting sites.
🪧 Warriors vs. Rockets Game 1 opening odds
Opening odds via BetMGM.
- Spread: Warriors -1.5 (-105) | Rockets +1.5 (-114)
- Moneyline: Warriors -112 | Rockets -104
- Over/Under: Over 214.5 (-111) | Under 214.5 (-111)
🚑 Warriors vs. Rockets injury report & lineup notes: Game 1
📋 Follow the official NBA injury report for more injury news.
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