Florida vs. Houston Preview, Best Bets & Predictions: Our Expert Guide to the NCAA Championship
It's two clashing styles taking the court at the Alamodome in San Antonio tonight at 8:50 p.m. ET (CBS) when Florida and its explosive offense go toe-to-toe with Houston and its ferocious defense in the NCAA Championship. We have all you need to know with our Florida vs. Houston preview and best bets.
While the Gators are 1-point betting favorites to take home the March Madness title, the Florida vs. Houston tale of the tape sees this as a complete toss-up that should be a pick 'em at our best sports betting sites with the way these two teams matchup.
🏆 Florida vs. Houston tale of the tape: NCAA Championship
📋 Florida vs. Houston key info, stats
Stats courtesy of Sports Reference.
| Florida | Houston | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 35-4 | 35-4 |
| Head coach (career record) | Todd Golden (132-69) | Kelvin Sampson (724-310) |
| Quad 1 record | 15-4 | 18-3 |
| 2025 NCAA Tournament wins | Norfolk State, UConn, Maryland, Texas Tech, Auburn | SIU Edwardsville, Gonzaga, Purdue, Tennessee, Duke |
| PPG (rank) | 85.3 (3rd) | 73.9 (175th) |
| OPP PPG (rank) | 69.8 (104th) | 58.5 (1st) |
| Offensive rating (rank) | 120.7 (4th) | 116.9 (17th) |
| Defensive rating (rank) | 98.8 (43rd) | 92.5 (2nd) |
| NCAA Tournament championships (last) | Two (2007) | Zero |
| NCAA Tournament championship appearances (last) | Three (2007) | Two (1984) |
| NCAA Tournament Final Four appearances | Six | Seven |
| NCAA Tournament appearances | 23 (two additional appearances were vacated by the NCAA) | 26 |
- It's the young hot shot vs. the future Naismith Hall of Famer when it comes to these head coaches
- Todd Golden is in just his third season at Florida after leading San Francisco for three years, and at 39 years old, a win would put him among the youngest head coaches to win March Madness
- Meanwhile, Kelvin Sampson is 69 and has been at Houston since 2014, after stints at Montana Tech, Washington State, Oklahoma, and Indiana
- These two teams both rank among the best in recent history, with Florida being a lethal offensive threat and Houston having an all-time defensive season, and would likely have been March Madness odds favorites from the start in almost any other season - Duke and Auburn sat atop the board for much of the year
- Neither program is a blue blood, but both have had strong stretches of success that saw them reach multiple Final Fours
- Florida's Billy Donovan era brought home two titles, led by Joakim Noah and Al Horford
- Houston's Guy Lewis "Phi Slama Jama" era went to two straight championships with Hakeem Olajuwon and Clyde Drexler, but came up short of bringing home the title both times
🧠 Florida vs. Houston advanced team stats
Stats courtesy of KenPom, EvanMiya, and BartTorvik.
| Stat (rank) | Florida | Houston |
|---|---|---|
| KenPom net rating | +36.33 (3rd) | +36.71 (2nd) |
| Adjusted offensive efficiency rating | 128.8 (2nd) | 124.1 (9th) |
| Adjusted defensive efficiency rating | 92.5 (9th) | 87.4 (1st) |
| Adjusted tempo rating | 69.9 (59th) | 61.7 (93rd) |
| Luck rating | +0.24 (121st) | +0.34 (93rd) |
| Strength of schedule rating | +15.58 (14th) | +15.06 (19th) |
| Relative rating | 33.8 (3rd) | 35.0 (2nd) |
| O-rate | 20.2 (2nd) | 16.1 (8th) |
| D-rate | 13.6 (9th) | 18.9 (1st) |
| Kill shot margin per game | 0.64 (10th) | 0.54 (15th) |
| Effective field goal percentage | 55.1% (31st) | 52.1% (108th) |
| Effective field goal percentage allowed | 45.6% (5th) | 44.8% (2nd) |
| Offensive rebound percentage | 38.8% (5th) | 37% (10th) |
| Defensive rebound percentage | 29% (135th) | 28.7% (116th) |
| T-rank | 4th | 1st |
- This game is a perfect matchup to resolve the lifelong question of whether an elite offense that plays at a lightning-fast pace is more effective or if a methodical approach with a suffocating defense is better for winning basketball games
- Houston's defense is historically strong, which is why three different advanced metrics rank the Cougars above the Gators this season
- The Gators clearly have the better offense, but it's not on the same level as the Duke team that Houston just beat - the Blue Devils are No. 1 in adjusted offensive efficiency
- Despite being a defense-first team, Houston's depth and efficiency still make it one of the better offenses in the country, especially with All-American L.J. Cryer
- While it does rank well, Florida's defense has had some sketchy moments in the NCAA Tournament (UConn, Texas Tech, Auburn) with its best defender, Alex Condon, dealing with an ankle injury and not playing his best basketball
- Houston has played seven of the top 10 teams in adjusted offensive efficiency already this season, including three of them in the NCAA Tournament (Gonzaga, Purdue, Duke)
- Florida has played four of the top 10 teams in adjusted defensive efficiency this season, but neither of the top two (Houston, St. John's)
🌟 Florida vs. Houston individual player stats
Stats courtesy of Sports Reference and EvanMiya.
| Stat | Florida | Houston |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring leader (PPG) | Walter Clayton Jr. (18.5) | L.J. Cryer (15.6) |
| Rebound leader (RPG) | Alex Condon (7.6) | J'Wan Roberts (6.5) |
| Assist leader (APG) | Clayton (4.1) | Milos Uzan (4.3) |
| 3-point leader (3PG) | Clayton (3.1) | Cryer (3.1) |
| Blocks leader (BPG) | Condon (1.4) | JoJo Tugler (2.0) |
| Steals leader (SPG) | Will Richard (1.6) | Emanuel Sharp (1.4) |
| PER leader | Condon (23.0) | Ja'Vier Francis (20.7) |
| Win shares leader | Clayton (6.4) | Cryer (6.6) |
| Offensive win shares leader | Clayton (4.4) | Cryer (4.3) |
| Defensive win shares leader | Richard (2.3) | Roberts (2.7) |
| BPR leader (rank) | Thomas Haugh - 7.98 (5th) | Tugler - 8.57 (3rd) |
| OBPR leader (rank) | Haugh - 5.54 (7th) | Cryer 4.42 (40th) |
| DBPR leader (rank) | Condon - 3.11 (31st) | Tugler - 5.16 (1st) |
| Projected 2025 NBA Draft picks | Two | Two |
| Top NBA draft prospect | Clayton | Tugler |
- The most interesting thing about these two teams might be that neither is expected to have a player selected in the first round of the NBA draft
- Walter Clayton Jr. may change that with the heater he's on, but the senior is expected to go early in the second round
- Many draftniks view Houston's JoJo Tugler, the Big 12 Defensive Player of the Year, as the best prospect taking the hardwood tonight
- The stats do a good job of painting the picture on how these two teams differ, with the Gators leaning so heavily on Clayton, and the Cougars having so much depth and versatility
- Thomas Haugh and Condon have been Florida's most efficient players this season, and both could create mismatches with their length against an undersized Houston team
- Houston's depth - eight players play 15-plus MPG - on top of its conditioning should help it keep up defensively when Florida wants to play fast
- Cryer rising to the occasion and matching Clayton offensively could be the key to a Cougars win
🥊 Florida vs. Houston tale of the tape: Best bet
🎯 Best bet: Houston ML
All the advanced metrics say Houston is the better team, but Florida is the betting favorite. However, I'm trusting in the numbers, on top of the Cougars' depth, ability to control the tempo of this game, and Cryer's stellar play in the NCAA Tournament. I'm backing Sampson to bring home his first championship.
Given Houston's historically impressive defense, how Sampson's squad is built to keep up with high-paced teams thanks to its conditioning and depth, and the Cougars having already taken down big bad Duke, I don't quite understand why this isn't a pick 'em. But I'll happily take these moneyline odds and buy into Houston's culture and upperclassmen-filled lineup to pull off another upset and achieve what Lewis' teams in the 80s never could, bringing a title to H-Town.
📊 Best odds: -102 via FanDuel ($10 to win $9.80)
📺 How to watch Florida vs. Houston: NCAA Championship
📅 Date: Monday, April 7
🕗 Time: 8:50 p.m. ET
📍 Location: Alamodome (San Antonio)
📺 TV: CBS
💻 Streaming: March Madness Live, Paramount+
🏀 Best NCAA Championship odds, predictions & expert picks tonight
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