March Madness: Is This the Best Final Four Ever?
For as much flack as the NCAA Tournament has received this year for its chalkiness, it's set fans up with arguably the greatest Final Four ever with this being just the second time in March Madness history that all four No. 1 seeds remain standing in the penultimate round.
That begs the question: Is this the best Final Four ever? The four teams left have been leading the March Madness odds for weeks, and there's really only one other Final Four that comes close to the foursome taking the hardwood tonight at the Alamodome in San Antonio.
🏆 March Madness: Is This the Best Final Four Ever?
🕰️ The 2008 Final Four is the only argument
Since seeding began in 1979, all four No. 1 seeds have reached the Final Four just one other time, in 2008. That alone points to this year's Final Four being at least top two ever, and a whole lot more backs up this one being the greatest we've ever seen.
It's hard to argue against KenPom as the best advanced metric for measuring college basketball teams, and there's no stronger argument for this being the best Final Four ever than what KenPom's historical rankings say.
Since KenPom's existence in 1996-97, all four 2025 Final Four teams rank in the top 10 all-time in KenPom's rankings. In fact, this year's Duke team ranks second ever, only to the 1998-99 Blue Devils squad that was led by Elton Brand but ended up losing to UConn and Richard Hamilton in the national championship.
So there's an argument that if this year's Duke team, led by Wooden Award odds favorite Cooper Flagg, can beat Houston in the Final Four tonight and take home the title, it will be the most dominant college basketball team of the last thirty years.
The most obvious reason that this year's Final Four beats out 2008 is that Kansas' championship-winning team from that year is the only program in KenPom's all-time top 10. And if Auburn puts together a strong outing against Florida tonight, the Tigers could push the Jayhawks to No. 10 on the list.
To further hammer home the point that we're seeing a historic Final Four tonight, the most comparable programs since 2001 to each of tonight's four teams all won the championship. Using KenPom's rating, you can see which teams over the last twenty-plus years are most aligned with this season's Final Four; all of them won the championship in their respective seasons.
| This year's Final Four team | Comparable team | Comparable metrics |
|---|---|---|
| Duke | 2023-24 UConn | Both No. 1 by KenPom, No. 1 in adjusted offensive efficiency, top five in adjusted defensive efficiency |
| Houston | 2018-19 Virginia | Both No. 1 in scoring defense, bottom 10 in adjusted tempo, and top 10 in both adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency |
| Florida | 2017-18 Villanova | Both top three in scoring offense, top two in adjusted offensive efficiency, outside the top five in adjusted defensive efficiency |
| Auburn | 2020-21 Baylor | Neither ranked No. 1 by KenPom, both top three in adjusted offensive efficiency, and outside the top five in adjusted defensive efficiency |
Looking for more reason to believe this is clearly the best Final Four ever? Just look at the tale of the tape below to see how 2008's No. 1 seeds compare to this year's, 2025 blows past it.
🥊 Final Four tale of the tape: 2008 vs. 2025
🐦 2008 Final Four
| Kansas | Memphis | North Carolina | UCLA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Head coach | Bill Self | John Calipari | Roy Williams | Ben Howland |
| Record | 37-3 | 38-2 | 36-3 | 35-4 |
| Final KenPom rating (rank) | +35.21 (1st) | +31.51 (2nd) | +30.22 (3rd) | +29.94 (4th) |
| Adjusted offensive efficiency rating (rank) | 120.9 (2nd) | 118.0 (6th) | 122.1 (1st) | 118.0 (7th) |
| Adjusted defensive efficiency rating (rank) | 85.7 (1st) | 86.5 (2nd) | 91.9 (14th) | 88.1 (5th) |
| PPG (rank) | 80.5 (13th) | 79.9 (15th) | 88.6 (2nd) | 73.5 (86th) |
| OPP PPG (rank) | 61.5 (21st) | 61.9 (31st) | 72.5 (262nd) | 59.0 (10th) |
| Leading scorer | Brandon Rush (13.3 PPG) | Chris Douglas-Roberts (18.1 PPG) | Tyler Hansbrough (22.6 PPG) | Kevin Love (17.5 PPG) |
| NBA draft picks | Six | Three | Four | Four |
| Most successful NBA player | Mario Chalmers | Derrick Rose | Danny Green | Russell Westbrook |
| Championship odds entering NCAA Tournament | +700 | +800 | +400 | +350 |
| Championship odds entering Final Four | +200 | +250 | +150 | +250 |
- This crop gave us one of the most memorable championship games of all time, with Kansas' 75-68 OT win over Memphis, which included Chalmers' three to force OT
- While the advanced metrics make it clear that 2008's Final Four isn't in the same stratosphere as 2025, it's aged well with the success of the head coaches and the talent it put into the NBA
- North Carolina won the championship the following season, with the bulk of its 2008 Final Four lineup returning to the Tar Heels - that team's KenPom rating (+31.14) ranks behind the entire 2025 Final Four's
- Three of the four head coaches are in the Naismith Memorial Basketball Hall of Fame
- The four head coaches have a combined 22 Final Four trips on their resumes, with all four making at least three in their careers
- Three of the four head coaches have won national championships, with six between them
- Two future NBA MVPs played in this Final Four, Rose and Westbrook, and six NBA lottery picks
- Hansbrough is among the most decorated collegiate basketball players of all-time with three consensus first-team All-Americans to his name, a Wooden Award, and a championship (2008-09)
😈 2025 Final Four
| Duke | Houston | Florida | Auburn | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Head coach | Jon Scheyer | Kelvin Sampson | Todd Golden | Bruce Pearl |
| Record | 35-3 | 34-4 | 34-4 | 32-5 |
| KenPom rating (rank) | +39.63 (1st) | +36.42 (2nd) | +36.06 (3rd) | +35.28 (4th) |
| Adjusted offensive efficiency rating (rank) | 130.1 (1st) | 123.9 (10th) | 129.1 (2nd) | 127.7 (3rd) |
| Adjusted defensive efficiency rating (rank) | 90.5 (5th) | 87.4 (1st) | 93.1 (10th) | 92.4 (8th) |
| PPG (rank) | 83.7 (9th) | 74.0 (169th) | 85.4 (3rd) | 83.2 (12th) |
| OPP PPG (rank) | 62.6 (7th) | 58.3 (1st) | 69.7 (100th) | 69.2 (87th) |
| Leading scorer | Cooper Flagg (18.9 PPG) | L.J. Cryer (15.4 PPG) | Walter Clayton Jr. (18.1 PPG) | Johni Broome (18.7 PPG) |
| Projected NBA draft picks | Five to six | Two to three | Two to three | Two |
| Championship odds entering NCAA Tournament | +325 | +600 | +325 | +425 |
| Championship odds entering Final Four | -110 via BetMGM | +450 via bet365 | +310 via FanDuel | +575 via BetMGM |
- What makes this Final Four group so fun is that Duke has one of the best all-around teams ever, Houston has a historically dominant defense, Florida has one of the best offenses in recent memory, and Auburn is the No. 1 overall seed from a record-setting SEC
- This year's SEC set a record with 14 NCAA Tournament teams and seven Sweet 16 teams, making it so fitting that the two best teams from the conference are meeting in the Final Four
- Flagg is expected to become just the fourth freshman ever to win the Wooden Award; he would join Duke's Zion Williamson (2019), Kentucky's Anthony Davis (2012), and Texas' Kevin Durant (2007)
- The NBA draft odds also revolve around Flagg, with him expected to give this Final Four group a No. 1 pick on top of a Wooden Award winner, and perhaps even an NBA MVP one day
- Both Flagg and Broome were unanimous first-team All-American selections, with Clayton joining them as a first-team All-American while Cryer earned a third-team nod
- While this Final Four isn't expected to have quite as many NBA draft picks as 2008, Duke alone is projected to have three lottery picks
- In pretty much any other year, Houston, Florida, and Auburn would be overwhelming favorites to win the title, but the Blue Devils have a chance to become one of the greatest teams of all time with two more wins
- 2008 is the only Final Four even sniffing the 2025 group, and still the numbers point to this year's Final Four overwhelmingly being the best ever
🆚 Final Four game predictions
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