NCAA Championship: Who Will Win Florida vs. Houston?
After both Florida and Houston needed second-half comebacks to pull off wins in the Final Four, the two programs meet tonight at 8:50 p.m. ET (CBS) from the Alamodome in San Antonio for the NCAA Championship.
Only one question remains: Who will win Florida vs. Houston? Will the Gators' hungry offense get the best of the Cougars' ferocious defense? Or will Kelvin Sampson's team pull off another upset to take down a Florida team that's a 1-point betting favorite?
🏆 Who will win Florida vs. Houston?
📊 Florida vs. Houston live odds
🔥 Houston's offense vs. Florida's defense
Despite being the less sexy matchup between these two programs tonight, Houston's offense is No. 9 in adjusted efficiency while Florida's defense is No. 9 in adjusted efficiency, according to KenPom. Both units are among the nation's best, according to advanced metrics. In theory, the matchup should be even.
However, while Florida's defense looks good on paper, it's been experiencing issues throughout the tournament when taking on top-15 teams in adjusted offensive efficiency. Auburn (No. 3), Texas Tech (No. 5), and UConn (No. 15) held leads in the second half against the Gators, who allowed an average of 75.7 points per game against those three. That's up significantly from Florida's season average of 69.8 points per game allowed.
One factor at play is that big man Alex Condon, the team's best defender, hasn't looked like himself during the NCAA Tournament while dealing with an ankle injury. Houston could exploit him with veteran big J'Wan Roberts. If Roberts can make noise down low, that should help All-American L.J. Cryer get open perimeter looks. And getting lost in all of this talk about Florida's offense is that Houston leads the country in 3-point percentage (39.9%).
More importantly for Houston's offense is that it shouldn't let Florida dictate the pace of the game. The Cougars are 360th in the country in adjusted tempo. Keeping the proceedings slow and methodical won't just challenge Florida's defense, it will help keep Houston's unit locked in against the Gators' offense.
💥 Florida's offense vs. Houston's defense
This is the reason we're all tuning in to the game. We want to see one of the best offenses in the country with a guard producing an all-time NCAA Tournament in Walter Clayton Jr. against one of the best defenses in college basketball history. It's clear the public loves watching Clayton and the Gators on offense, which is why they're favored to win this game. But should they be the favorites?
Houston just kept one of the greatest offenses ever in Duke's unit to just 67 points, and that's with Wooden Award odds favorite Cooper Flagg leading the way. That included holding the Blue Devils scoreless for the final 1:14 of the game while going on a 9-0 run to win. And while Flagg still managed 27 points, Duke shot just 39.6% from the floor.
Could Sampson's team put together a similar performance against Florida, with Clayton getting his numbers, but the Gators' offense ultimately falling flat? I think that will be the case, with Houston's offense slowing this game down so much that it throws Florida out of whack offensively.
It doesn't help Florida's 3-point heavy offense that Houston is built to shut down perimeter shooting, with their guards being such great on-ball defenders. The Cougars allow opponents to shoot just 30.3% from the floor.
Houston is used to taking on top offenses too after playing seven of the top 10 teams in adjusted offensive efficiency already, including three in the NCAA Tournament (Duke, Purdue, and Gonzaga). Those three squads averaged just 67.7 points per game against the Cougars.
🐆 Prediction: Houston wins
One of these programs is the country's most efficient 3-point shooting team and boasts a historically dominant defense. The other is relying on one player to complete a Kemba Walker-like tournament (Clayton) while the team's second-best player has been a borderline net negative when on the court (Condon). Are we sure Florida should be a 1-point betting favorite?
This game should be a pick'em, and if any team is favored, it should be Houston. The Cougars just beat the second-best team of the KenPom era with one of the most memorable comebacks in NCAA Tournament history. Houston is the more complete team while featuring more depth, and it boasts arguably the best active head coach in college basketball.
As long as Houston doesn't let Florida force it to play fast on offense and turn this game into a track meet, the Cougars should be able to control the contest throughout. I have the Cougars winning 72-69 and Sampson pulling off what Guy Lewis couldn't four decades ago.
📊 Houston's best moneyline odds to beat Florida: -103 via BetRivers ($10 to win $9.71)
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📺 How to watch Florida vs. Houston: NCAA Championship
📅 Date: Monday, April 7
🕗 Time: 8:50 p.m. ET
📍 Location: Alamodome (San Antonio)
📺 TV: CBS
💻 Streaming: March Madness Live, Paramount+
🏀 Best NCAA Championship odds, predictions & expert picks tonight
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