New Pope Predictions: Who'll Be the 267th Pope & What'll Be His Papal Name?
The conclave will soon assemble to choose the 267th pope following the death of Pope Francis, and we're making our best next pope predictions, with the help of AI.
It didn't take long for the new pope betting odds to emerge on Monday, soon after the passing of Pope Francis. The cardinals will soon gather following a period of mourning and begin the (approximately) 15-20 day process of electing the new leader of the Catholic church.
Sportsbook Review has broken down how to bet on next pope, and below we'll offer predictions on the next pope, his papal name, and more, based on the odds from our Ontario sports betting sites.
🕊️ Who will replace Pope Francis?
Odds for who will be the next pope are via Sports Interaction as of Wednesday, April 23, and not available in the U.S.
🔢 Who will be the next pope odds
- Pietro Parolin (+185)
- Luis Antonio Tagle (+300)
- Matteo Zuppi (+600)
- Peter Turkson (+800)
- Peter Erdo (+1000)
- Pierbattista Pizzaballa (+1000)
- Robert Sarah (+1600)
- Fridolin Ambongo Besungu (+1800)
- Kevin Farrell (+2000)
- Raymond Leo Burke (+2500)
- Angelo Scola (+2500)
- Marc Ouellet (+3300)
- Francis Arinze (+3300)
- Reinhard Marx (+3300)
- Angelo De Donatis (+4000)
- Timothy Dolan (+4000)
- Willem Eijk (+4000)
- Christoph Schonborn (+5000)
- Sean Patrick O'Malley (+5000)
- Gianfranco Ravasi (+5000)
- Konrad Krajewski (+5000)
- Oscar Rodriguez Maradiaga (+6600)
- Thomas Christopher Collins (+6600)
- Antonio Caaizares Llovera (+6600)
- Francisco Robles Ortega (+6600)
- Robert McElroy (+10000)
- Anders Arborelius (+10000)
- William Goh (+10000)
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🤖 AI prediction for who will be the next pope
I asked ChatGPT, a popular large language model chatbot from OpenAI for its best prediction to be the 267th pope. Please note the ChatGPT is not a betting expert and these picks should be considered only for entertainment and information purposes.
"Based on current trends, betting markets, and Vatican dynamics, here’s my prediction for who is most likely to become the 267th pope:
Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle (Philippines)
- Best odds: +300 (3/1)
- Confidence rating: ⭐⭐⭐⭐ (4 out of 5)
- Estimated probability: 33%
🧠 Reasoning behind the pick:
- Strong alignment with Pope Francis Tagle is widely seen as the ideological and pastoral heir to Pope Francis. As head of the Dicastery for Evangelization, his focus on missionary outreach, humility, and inclusion resonates with the Church's current direction
- Appeal to a global church Tagle would be the first pope from Asia - home to some of the fastest-growing Catholic populations. His election would be a bold step in the Church's desire to reflect its global nature and diversity
- Vatican experience with international credibility Fluent in multiple languages and a skilled communicator, Tagle is beloved both inside and outside Rome. His extensive pastoral work and theological depth give him credibility with cardinals from across the spectrum
Betting takeaway: Tagle offers value at +300, especially given his broad support and the church’s likely desire to continue Pope Francis’ legacy while elevating a voice from the Global South."
📛 What will be the first confirmed papal name of the next appointed pope?
When a new pope is elected, he personally selects a papal name - typically just moments after accepting the role. This name is often chosen to honor a saint, a previous pope, or a set of values the new pontiff wants to emphasize. For example, Pope Francis chose his name to reflect the humility and concern for the poor shown by St. Francis of Assisi.
Though there are no strict rules, traditions shape the choice. Names like Peter are generally avoided out of reverence for the first pope, and some names carry strong historical associations. The chosen name is revealed during the “Habemus Papam” announcement from the balcony of St. Peter’s Basilica.
🔢 Odds for the new pope's papal name
- Benedict (+400)
- John (+500)
- Leo (+500)
- John Paul (+500)
- Gregory (+1000)
- Urban (+1000)
- Clement (+1400)
- Stephen (+1400)
- Paul (+1400)
- Innocent (+2000)
- Pius (+2000)
- Boniface (+2000)
- Celestine (+2000)
- Eugene (+2000)
- Pontian (+2000)
- Victor (+3300)
- Adeodatus (+3300)
- Sixtus (+6600)
- Damien (+10000)
🤖 AI prediction for the next pope's papal name
Pope John XXIV
If Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle is elected, a strong prediction for his papal name is John XXIV. Here’s why:
- Tribute to Pope John XXIII Tagle has spoken admiringly of Pope John XXIII, who opened the Church to the modern world by convening the Second Vatican Council. Choosing “John” would signal a continuation of progressive and inclusive reform
- A pastoral tone The name “John” carries a warm, pastoral image associated with compassion and approachability—qualities that resonate deeply with Tagle’s own style of ministry
- Historical Continuity Following John Paul II, a return to “John” alone (rather than a dual name) would reflect a simpler, more humble papacy, fitting for someone like Tagle.
Of course, it’s speculative, but “John XXIV” would be a symbolic and meaningful choice for a modern, globally conscious pontificate.
🌎 Which will be the birth continent of the next pope?
🔢 Odds
- Europe (+100)
- Asia (+140)
- Africa (+550)
- North America (+1200)
- South America (+2500)
🤖 AI prediction for the next pope's birth continent
🌍 Most likely birth continent of the next pope: Asia
🧭 Why Asia?
- Church growth: The Catholic church is expanding rapidly in Asia, particularly in the Philippines and parts of South Asia. A pope from Asia would reflect the Church’s shifting global center of gravity
- Front-runner: Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle, from the Philippines, is one of the most prominent and widely supported candidates. His election would mark the first Asian pope in modern history
- Balance of power: After a European and a South American pope, many cardinals may favor a non-European to reinforce the Church's universality
🗳️ How many ballots will take place to elect the new pope?
A new pope is elected by the College of Cardinals through a secret ballot inside the Sistine Chapel, and it typically takes multiple rounds of voting. Here's how it works:
- Two ballots are held each morning and two each afternoon, for a total of up to four per day.
- To be elected, a candidate must receive a two-thirds majority of the votes.
- The process continues until one cardinal receives that majority, which can take anywhere from a single ballot to over a dozen.
📜 Historical examples:
- Pope Francis (2013): Elected on the fifth ballot.
- Pope Benedict XVI (2005): Elected on the fourth ballot.
- Pope John Paul II (1978): Elected on the eighth ballot.
In extreme cases, conclaves in the past have lasted weeks or even months, but modern conclaves are usually resolved in a few days.
🔢 Odds
- 9 or more ballots (+225)
- 5 ballots (+375)
- 6 ballots (+400)
- 4 ballots (+500)
- 3 ballots (+600)
- 8 ballots (+900)
- 1 ballot (+1000)
- 2 ballots (+1000)
- 7 ballots (+1000)
🤖 AI prediction for how many ballots it'll take to elect the new pope
Fifth (+375) or sixth (+400) ballot - confidence ⭐⭐⭐⭐ (4 out of 5), probability ~33%. This reflects recent conclave trends (Francis on fifth, Benedict on fourth), suggesting the cardinals favor relatively quick elections for unity and continuity.
A bettor could bet $10 on both the fifth and sixth ballot options and profit a total of $27.50 if he's elected on the fifth ballot and $30 if elected on the sixth ballot.
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* Bonuses not applicable in Ontario.
Not intended for use in MA.
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