Michael Chandler vs. Paddy Pimblett Prediction, Expert Picks & Odds: UFC 314
He didn’t get his dream opponent, but Michael Chandler returns to action today at UFC 314, facing prospect Paddy Pimblett in a five-round lightweight co-main event at Kaseya Center in Miami.
After spending two years on the shelf hoping to welcome Conor McGregor back to the Octagon, Chandler took the cage this past November at UFC 309, dropping a rematch to Charles Oliveira by unanimous decision. The defeat, Chandler’s second straight and fourth in his last five, brought the veteran’s career slate to 23-9.
As for the other half of Saturday’s co-headliner, Pimblett has yet to taste defeat under the UFC banner, boasting a promotional record of 6-0 with four stoppages. The Liverpool product last competed in July at UFC 304, where he earned his eighth straight win with a first-round submission of Bobby Green.
🔮 Michael Chandler vs. Paddy Pimblett prediction & best bet for UFC 314
(Odds via our best UFC betting sites; UFC picks confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale)
- Fight prediction: Chandler to win (+126 via FanDuel) vs. Pimblett ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- My best bet: Chandler by KO/TKO or submission (+200 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
🥊 Chandler vs. Pimblett fight analysis
Say what you will, but the jury is still out on Pimblett, and despite sitting just barely on the right side of 40, Chandler should hand him quite the comeuppance. To Pimblett’s credit, his tapout of Green is easily the biggest of his career, but the UFC brass has treated him with kid gloves - until now.
Tasked with an ex-Bellator champion boasting an enormous edge in strength of schedule, Pimblett will have Chandler’s missile of a right hand, takedowns, and excellent top control to worry about over five rounds or less.
Yes, Pimblett can get busy when working off his back, but he defends only 40% of the opposition’s strike attempts, which Chandler will exploit with a solid clip of 4.49 significant strikes landed per minute.
All this to say, if a slumping Chandler can rein himself in, set up his right hand, and avoid shooting naked for takedowns, he should end his skid in resounding fashion.
Pimblett entered fight week this matchup’s favorite, presumably due to his edge in activity and Chandler’s mileage. As a result, you’ll find compelling moneyline bets on Chandler across all our best sports betting sites. FanDuel gets the nod on a 24th career victory for Chandler, barely leading BetMGM at +126 to +125.
Prediction: Chandler to win (+126 via FanDuel) | Implied probability: 44.25%
💎 Chandler vs. Pimblett best bet
Chandler’s underdog status leaves us with some tempting prop lines just hours before UFC 314, with a double-chance bet getting the nod this time.
The elder fighter of this pair can finish with his mitts and on the mat, boasting 11 KO/TKO stoppages and seven submissions for 18 finishes in 23 wins. Additionally, few fighters have made Pimblett work off his back for extended periods in recent years, and as a former D-I college wrestler, Chandler is just the man to do it.
On the feet, Pimblett remains hittable and often fails to tuck his chin when throwing strikes, while Chandler still packs a solid wallop in his right hand - even if he’s mere days away from turning 39.
Should the pair remain upright, Chandler will find a home for the right hand before long, and if they hit the mat, look for the vet to stay busy on top and advance his position before putting the final squeeze on an outmatched Pimblett. In any case, this one ends with Chandler’s 19th career stoppage.
Among our best sports betting apps, DraftKings routinely offers double-chance props, and they’re home to our best bet for Saturday’s co-main event. Indeed, you’ll find a Chandler win by KO/TKO/DQ or submission at a solid +200 mere hours before the cage door shuts.
Best bet: Chandler by KO/TKO or submission (+200 via DraftKings) | Implied probability: 33.33%
📊 Chandler vs. Pimblett odds
Odds via FanDuel as of Saturday, April 12.
| Michael Chandler | Method of victory | Paddy Pimblett |
|---|---|---|
| +126 | Win outright | -154 |
| +290 | Win by KO/TKO/DQ | +270 |
| +600 | Win by unanimous decision | +950 |
| +5000 | Draw | +5000 |
Compelling lines abound for this lightweight matchup, with Pimblett holding steady as its slight favorite. Pimblett’s preferred method of victory is the tapout, and you’ll find an 11th career submission for the Scouser at a tempting +250 with FanDuel, while a 12th career stoppage via strikes for Chandler is available at +290.
📏 Chandler vs. Pimblett tale of the tape
| Michael Chandler | Paddy Pimblett | |
|---|---|---|
| 38 | Age | 30 |
| 5'8" | Height | 5'10" |
| 156 lbs. | Weight | 156 lbs. |
| 71" | Reach | 73" |
| 23-9 | Record | 22-3 |
📺 Chandler vs. Pimblett fight info: UFC 314
🗓️ Date: Saturday, April 12🕗 Time: Main card at 10 p.m. ET📍 Location: Kaseya Center (Miami)💻 Streaming: ESPN+ PPV
👑 Best UFC betting sites
Looking to bet on the UFC? Here are our best UFC betting sites as determined by our expert team at Sportsbook Review, along with our best sportsbook promos available for today's UFC event.
- Caesars Promo Code: SBRBONUSDYW | Read our Caesars Review
- BetMGM Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our BetMGM Review
- bet365 Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our bet365 Review
- FanDuel Promo Code | Read our FanDuel Review
- DraftKings Promo Code | Read our DraftKings Review
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